Nine months ago, we were told that the world would be in recession today. This did not quite happen. Now we are assured that 2023 will see a global recession, even in the US.

Inflation will not fall back to the pre-Covid 2% level that the US Federal Reserve wants. Two underlying structural changes will keep US inflation at about 4% in the future.

Harvard's Lawrence Summers was interviewed about inflation last month. His comments focused on a single entity - the Fed. But fighting the causes of today's higher inflation is simply not within the Fed's power.

President Zelensky of Ukraine finally called a spade a spade by designating the NATO allies as cowards. The winner in all this is President Zi of China, reinforcing his view that the West is spineless and in decline.

Real US Treasury yields collapsed from 7% to -6% between 1981 and 2021, yet most people fail to understand why. Understanding changes in real rates is crucial to forecasting nominal interest rates, and the outlook for asset prices.

As governments become accustomed to spending vast sums of money and workers regain their bargaining power, the short-term inflationary pressures attributed to Covid-19 will bleed into a longer period of higher inflation.

Starting in mid to late 2022, five structural changes will begin to kick in that will drive inflation to between 4% and 6% in the years following 2022. These changes will impact inflation for decades.

Charles Goodhart, perhaps Britain's most distinguished economic commentator, has just co-authored a book arguing that longer-term inflation will be much higher than the past 35 years. The reason for his view is highly unorthodox - and, in our opinion, correct.

The madness at the end of January around a few now-famous stocks can largely be explained by the fact that all of five conditions for market madness were met.

In the last two weeks, very important data on the US economy and corporate earnings have been released. These depressing data are as we had predicted. It remains true that the S&P 500 should drop by 35% from its 1 January level.

The US jobs report this past week was euphoric and propelled the stock market to even higher levels. But after the easy gains over the next two or three years from reopening the service sector, the US economy faces a slow nine-year recovery. US equities remain overvalued.

Many in the financial markets are expecting a V-shaped recovery starting in the fourth quarter of this year, possibly even in the third quarter. Robert Huebscher speaks with renowned economist, Dr Woody Brock about why Woody disagrees, and instead foresees a slow and uneven recovery with periodic slumps.

Coronavirus has put an end to the longest post-war US expansion, and is all but certain to cause a recession that will be wholly different from any other in economic history. In this podcast, Robert Huebscher speaks with renowned economist, Dr Woody Brock, about how and why.

Two weeks ago as the coronavirus crisis began to unfold, I warned that the market could soon drop to 17,500 on the Dow. One very important form of investor ignorance today concerns the market's view that it is prospects for corporate earnings that will matter most. This is wrong.

The new virus is an "unknowable unknown" of the first order. Should the virus turn into an epidemic, all Americans will alter their behavior, such that an outright recession could result.

What strategy should a rational investor, completely free of constraints, take to preserve wealth while making modest long-term gains? To do so will not be easy over the next two decades.

Five misplaced concerns about the future of the dollar make forecasts of a long-run collapse in the dollar problematic.

We give a 20% chance to a US corporate debt bubble burst before end 2020. It is both incredible and unconscionable that massive leverage could once again bring down Main Street a mere decade after 2008.

The fallacy that an inverted yield curve "predicts" the onset of recessions is alive and well. Many investors believe the curve will invert in 2019, precipitating a recession. But a flattening of the yield curve need not imply a recession.

President Trump's protectionist threats have raised the risks of a serious trade war, the first in over 80 years. It is assumed that this would materially impact US growth - but is that the case?