My bottom line for 2014 is that investors should be overweight global equities, underweight bonds. My biggest call? China's stockmarket could be the best performing.
A year ago, the world was salivating at the prospect of current account deficits in the developing world. Now, it's terrified. It's a terrific investment opportunity.
What's a very good long-term return from equity markets? What's fair? Take for example, Sigma Pharmaceuticals.
Efficient market theory claims you can't beat the market. Seductive as it is, this claim is incorrect, as research makes clear.
It's now time to start looking into alternatives to equities and bonds.
Three key shock risks will affect investors over the next decade, requiring a real difference in how we construct portfolios for retirement.
What makes this cycle so different? Five reasons - two are quite conventional, three are not. With proper economic policies, good times could lie ahead for the West.
The recent Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference was my 10th or 11th. I saw a fascinating disconnect between policymakers and the markets.
I'm used to being alone and against consensus. I believe the next decade is going to see the strongest level of global economic growth anyone today has seen.
Abenomics brought rapid policy change to Japan and its economy is showing signs of improvement. More change is needed but it could work out nicely.
There is intense speculation as to who will be the next chair of the US Fed.
A growing army of data scientists is mining patterns from our online activity. What are the implications for investment?
Indonesia's rise is one of the big stories of the Asian century, a future great power in Asia, just behind China and India. Indonesia may matter as much to Australia investors as China and the US.
All of the Conference sessions are building blocks for this session which helps delegates determine the key takeouts from the jam-packed program and actions delegates should take when building investor portfolios.
To build a truly diversified portfolio, you need to consider alternative investments as a third dimension alongside equities and fixed income.
Multi-asset absolute return investing offers more certainty of achieving the right outcome for clients and portfolios which are more sustainable through an investor’s life stages.
A fundamental-based approach to equity index investing can be a powerful way to reduce risk and improve performance over the investment lifecycle.
Top performing shares often display a high ROE, while poor performing shares display the reverse - making ROE a superior valuation input to PE ratios.
Australians have sought offshore diversification for years. The logical extension is to think more deeply about how to make offshore exposures complement local ones.
Agricultural equities is the 'third leg' of the global natural resources sector, joining energy and mining.
Real return funds with their more dynamic and go-anywhere structures are designed to be able to navigate through difficult and normal times. Can they really deliver?
If you're making investments you can't sell for 10 years, how do you go about selecting them? What lessons can be learned from history?
Simplifications taken in building Australian equity strategies may result in a portfolio that doesn't achieve what it's been designed to do, particularly in relation to income and volatility.
Allocating to countries with net wealth rather than net debt can lead to superior portfolio outcomes.
Under the lifecycle investing approach, real return outcomes are the most crucial measure of investment outcomes. But managing real return risk involves thinking differently about what risk really means in portfolios.
The first argument for investing in emerging markets is that's where the growth is. That said, high economic growth does not necessarily imply high stock returns.
China needs to embrace a stronger RMB - can it become the EM's Duetsche Mark - while Japan has embarked on a structurally weak yen, with profound implications for the rest of the world.
Reforms undertaken after the 1997 crisis drive the economic resilience of South East Asia today. Going forward, cyclical risks exist, but the region is set to do better still.
China has a very new type of leader. It is in the sphere of domestic politics and economic policy, in particular, that the extent of Xi's power and his policy preferences are unclear. The signals have been mixed.
For most, human capital is the most important source of financial capital and consumption through life. Nurturing, managing and protecting it is of paramount importance.
The world is going through a period of demographic shift that is without parallel in history - with six investment sectors advantaged.
At a practical level, how can we manage the risk of a client not maintaining their desired standard of living in retirement because they have lived longer than expected?
Recorded exclusively for PortfolioConstruction Forum PIMCO's Mohammed El-Erian discusses QE, and whether Australia can continue to escape the new normal.
The rule of thumb 4% pa safe withdrawal rate has proven fairly robust in ensuring most retirees don't run out of money, but it is coming under pressure in the current environment.
Managing sequencing risk - the risk of poor or negative returns near or around retirement age when a portfolio is at its largest and most vulnerable - is a critical component of lifecycle investing.
Is the strong performance of trend-following strategies a statistical fluke of the last few decades or a more robust phenomenon over a wide range of economic conditions?
Yield hungry investors would do well to take stock of their real investment objectives before making the headlong plunge into rapidly appreciating high yielding stocks and bonds.
Today's younger generation will become tomorrow's older generation. This predictability makes demographic shifts the single most powerful investment force of our time.
In constructing a portfolio to help clients meet their retirement goals, practitioners need to factor in the three most significant risks. A logical, valuation-based approach can help.
Baby boomer retirees need an investment approach that delivers the income they need and maintains the ability to meet their other objectives too.
Recorded exclusively for PortfolioConstruction Forum, Prof. Jack Gray explains why lifecycle investing concepts needs adaptation for Australia.
As investors move into decumulation, infrastructure can make a meaningful contribution to portfolios.
The traditional balanced fund for retirement investing resulted in a GFC return of -27%. It's time to put in place a new approach to plan for THE future as opposed to A future.
Australian investors can get better returns and increase the transparency of the companies they invest in, by including unlisted equity in portfolios.
Traditional unit trust structures can be disadvantageous to clients seeking higher income. New options better manage this from both an investment and structure perspective.
To fill the income void, investors need not look much further than Australia's liquid and ever-growing bond market which, unlike the majority of the developed world, still offers positive real rates.
Exclusively for PortfolioConstruction Forum, Nobel laureate Robert Merton discusses moving to an income goal for the retirement phase of an investor's lifecycle.
Lifecycle investing differs from more traditional approaches to financial planning in a number of important ways - but it is not without its challenges.
Recorded exclusively for PortfolioConstruction Forum Conference, Larry Fink argues that if we don't address the challenges of increasing longevity, it will be an expensive blessing.
Recorded exclusively for PortfolioConstruction Forum, Sonal Desai argues it's vital to distinguish between sources of negative bond returns.
Like people, economies and markets have lifecycles. This global macro economic, geopolitical and market scene setter looks at where we are in the macro lifecycle and implications for portfolios.
Recorded exclusively for PortfolioConstruction Forum, Alan Brown argues that what really matters to people is money-weighted rates of return.
Better quality portfolio construction must take a whole of life focus, considering accumulation and decumulation as equally important phases of one continuous process.
There will be a significant focus by investors in the future to address the mismatch between their risk profile and the risk level of their portfolios.
In an ideal world, clients would immediately implement the advice they're given. The real world is very different, of course. The growing body of behavioral finance and psychology research can help.
Via its QE program, Japan has committed $100 billion toward infrastructure spending. Is it a bridge to nowhere?
This presentation discusses what advisers from around the world are doing to ensure their clients are more likely to implement the recommendations of their financial adviser.
Big event risk is less important today than back in 2008 and 2009, when investing was all about whether the world was going to melt down. It's now important to focus on the micro.
In this talk Larry Fink paints an interesting picture of the trends, challenges and issues resulting from retirement funding, and the impact on the global economy in future.
Diversification across asset classes didn't hold up well under the blowtorch of the GFC. Allocating across risk factors, rather than asset classes, can lead to better diversification.
LatAm is a relatively unexplored investment landscape that has some long-term advantages compared to Asia or emerging Europe.
I continue to be positive on the broader global economic backdrop - but buckle up and prepare for some turbulence over the next few months.
Some lament the end of the mining boom - but resources company dividends payout ratios may now rise.
When all the risks are plain to see, investors understandably become cautious. But often, the very best time to buy is when the risks are well and truly known.
Parts of the private equity market are offering three times the return of high yield debt, for a third less risk.
Often with investing, simple ideas work best. Last decade, the name of the game was to front run Chinese investors. For the next decade, the story is different, and even simpler.
The key takeouts and actions to take when building investor portfolios.
What really does, and does not, cause a retirement plan to run out of money? The true danger for many is not a market crash or black swan event.
Misjudging longevity can have a very detrimental impact quality of retirement. A strategic approach is needed to better manage longevity implications for portfolios.
Property’s attractive characteristic as an asset class is that it is able to deliver relatively stable revenue streams, with a growth profile in line with inflation. This presentation and paper discuss listed property in the context of the New Zealand market and give some perspective on the sector’s track record over the last cycle.
A changing Equity Risk Premium has implications beyond considering allocations to equities and bonds. This presentation and paper consider the factors that might drive a change in the Equity Risk Premium and ask - If elevated ERPs fall, which sectors and stocks might benefit the most? What implications might that have for investing?
For nearly 30 years bond yields globally have fallen, generating significantly positive returns to investors - but with yields near record lows and global growth improving, this is unlikely to continue. This presentation and paper explore the development of the NZ fixed income market and consider ways for investors to better protect themselves against the growing risks.
Throughout Symposium 2013, PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium Moderator, Graham Rich, presented Video Thought Pieces in which leading global investment experts shared their thoughts on investment challenges. This video featured a panel of experts debating the opportunities and possibilities created by the aging population via the resulting seismic shift in health care, jobs, education, housing, transportation, technology, travel, consumer products and entertainment.
Throughout Symposium 2013, PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium Moderator, Graham Rich, presented Video Thought Pieces in which leading global investment experts shared their thoughts on investment challenges. This video featured Mohamed El-Erian talking about how investing is fundamentally like being a surfer.
As the centre of the world economy is shifting towards the Pacific, New Zealand and Australia are facing great opportunities. But are we ready to embrace them? Or are we not even aware of them? Both New Zealand and Australia should embrace economic reforms to make the most of their favourable geopolitical situation.
Throughout Symposium 2013, PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium Moderator, Graham Rich, presented Video Thought Pieces in which leading global investment experts shared their thoughts on investment challenges. This video featured Niall Ferguson talking about the great degeneration.
Throughout Symposium 2013, PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium Moderator, Graham Rich, presented Video Thought Pieces in which leading global investment experts shared their thoughts on investment challenges. This video featured Nouriel Roubini talking about the two forces driving investment markets.
Five pillars of risk neatly encapsulate the main areas of risk and contagion that all investors should be watching. In the changing risk environment, the key is to determine which parts of the world are actually paying you to take risk, and which areas are definitely not.
Throughout Symposium 2013, PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium Moderator, Graham Rich, presented Video Thought Pieces in which leading global investment experts shared their thoughts on investment challenges. This video featured Nouriel Roubini talking about the gap between emerging and developed markets, and between real and financial markets.
Is it possible to reduce emerging markets’ volatility without sacrificing return potential? This paper and presentation show that a portfolio with emerging stocks, bonds and currencies managed in an active, unconstrained and integrated strategy can capture a greater set of opportunities to seek the high returns associated with EM growth, with better risk management potential.
The low yield world has focused investors on the costs of investing, while changing regulation is leading to greater alignment between portfolio choices and risk-return profiles. Together these factors are transforming the use of active management, indexing and the blending of investment styles. This paper and presentation highlight the results of a survey of various approaches to blending active and index funds in portfolios.
It is time for investors to reorient their thinking about bond allocations and the investment strategies that drive them. In this environment, bond investors will need to adapt if they hope to prosper.
ETFs have grown substantially in size, range, complexity and popularity in recent years. This presentation and paper provide the key issues and portfolio strategy considerations relating to ETFs that can form part of the client conversation. These considerations are not often discussed but should influence whether and how ETFs may be used by clients relative to alternative structures.
Many of the conventional approaches to post-retirement portfolio construction have not been scrutinised adequately in terms of possible outcomes for retirees adopting these approaches. This paper and presentation assess the possible outcomes of using these approaches in meeting income objectives and examines how the advice process can evolve to better address specific objectives by adopting a more holistic approach to portfolio construction.
Building a better global equity portfolio requires a new structure that incorporates both high-growth/higher expected-return elements (emerging markets and small cap, for example) and a complementary low volatility component. This paper and presentation explain why low-volatility equities make sense and provides an overview of the types of strategies available.
What is risk parity investing? What are the practical challenges of implementing such strategies in portfolios? Why might risk parity portfolios represent a better way to protect clients through diversification.
This presentation was preparation for the interactive workshop later in the program, looking at the fundamental principles behind diversification, the critical role of correlation in getting diversification benefits, and how practically to consider the benefits of diversification when designing portfolios.
Despite having much to worry about - a Eurozone in recession, a listless US recovery, Japan's QE, slowing China growth, North Korea - the S&P 500 reached new, all-time highs recently. Where to from here?
There is a new, evolving world order affecting asset prices. Game theory provides a framework for better assessing what’s happening and the implications for investing.
Throughout Symposium 2013, PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium Moderator, Graham Rich, presented Video Thought Pieces in which leading global investment experts shared their thoughts on investment challenges. This video featured Mohamed El-Erian talking about the interplay of the visible hand (QE) and the invisible hand (the markets).
Throughout Symposium 2013, PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium Moderator, Graham Rich, presented Video Thought Pieces in which leading global investment experts shared their thoughts on investment challenges. This video featured Warren Buffett and others talking about the lessons they learned from the legendary Benjamin Graham.
Markets had a very good run in Q1 2013. But which parts of the world are actually paying you to take risk, and which areas are definitely not?
What's the probability of a major risk event for global equity markets this year - and what are the major opportunities?
We're seeing a significant correction in global equity markets and commodity markets including a staggering decline in gold. What does this mean for portfolios?
Despite the Cypriot tragedy, the next few years will see stronger global GDP numbers than in a very long time.
In terms of raw value and potential upside, Japanese equities offer one of the more compelling opportunities.
Managed funds which commingle different tax rate investors may become dinosaurs unless managers develop funds tailored to a single tax class.
Tom discusses why the corporate bond space offers positive real yields in a globally repressed rate environment.
RMB nationalisation and how it is becoming a trading currency, as well as political changes in Thailand, India and the Philippines and how these are triggering bull markets.
Stephen discusses the rise of income investing and the advantages of global equities for income seeking investors. As a global energy specialist, he discusses the US shale energy revolution and industrial renaissance, before concluding with insights on the eurozone, and why it remains a significant and underappreciated threat to a global recovery.
Ethan discusses why risk matters, the characteristics of a higher quality return stream and how size, scale, diversification, costs and non-market risks can influence the consistency and repeatability of an investment process.
Global central bank objectives in 2013, the impact on asset allocation, and avoiding mis-allocation of capital.
Adrian will discuss global fundraising and the secondary market including secondary market supply/demand, the market participants, key challenges, market catalysts and how to gain easier access to this much misunderstood asset class.
The spotlight shone on the outlook for Australian equities in a 3-D world (deleveraging, demographics and (liquidity) damns - and the portfolio construction implications.
Pippa offers her unique insights and takeouts from program.
The key takeouts from the program and actions to take when building quality investor portfolios.
Our 10 markets experts debated their views and answered delegates' questions on the outlook for the global investment markets.
Our second equities speaker offered a contrasting view on the outlook for global equities - the most likely scenario for the three years ahead, key risks and signposts to watch for.
The spotlight turned to global equities - key scenarios, risks and opportunities for the coming three years - and the portfolio construction implications.
The outlook for developed sovereign markets, credit, cash, and bonds vs US bank loans and high yield debt - and the portfolio construction implications.
The outlook for growth market debt for the three years ahead - key scenarios, risks and opportunities - plus, of course, the portfolio construction implications.
The outlook for development market debt for the three years ahead - key scenarios, risks and opportunities - plus, of course, the portfolio construction implications.
The outlook for private equity and debt - key scenarios, risks and opportunities for the coming three years - and the portfolio construction implications.
The outlook for Asian equities - key scenarios, risks and opportunities for the coming three years - and the portfolio construction implications.
The outlook for global resources - key scenarios, risks and opportunities for the coming three years - and the portfolio construction implications.
The outlook for global infrastructure - key scenarios, risks and opportunities for the coming three years - and the portfolio construction implications.
Four economic experts debated the outlook for the global economy and portfolio construction implications.
The key market and economic risks and opportunities ahead - and portfolio construction implications.
Australia's national income per person is the 5th-highest in the world. But the drivers of success are deteriorating.
The US fiscal cliff; global slowdown; EU crisis; Middle East and oil prices; and contagion risk.
The key business and geopolitical risks and opportunities over the coming three years.
Three key themes came out of Zenith's latest review of the global equity long-only funds sector.