The RBA’s hawkish pivot signals a turning point for Australian equities. Backed into a corner with a high inflation, the RBA is set to continue rate hikes that will bring on an earnings recession in 2023. Although the ASX failed to make new highs in 2023, the market is at a high that makes it vulnerable to more downside. While mortgage rates are rising and the retail pain is only just beginning, Australian CPI – which had been lagging the rest of the world – is still rising while inflation in other economies is moderating. Practitioners should be patient and use equity market weakness later in this year as the silver lining to position for an improved long-term outlook for Australian equities.

William Curtayne