The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. The new normal will be a US policy rate close to or just below 3%.

There may be enough positive factors to make this a relatively decent - albeit mediocre - year for the global economy. But a global growth-stall and sharp market downturn could come in 2020.

As we mark the decennial of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the GFC. By 2020, conditions will be ripe for a new financial crisis.

For the first time in a decade, the biggest risks are now stagflationary (slower growth and higher inflation). It would seem that the current risk-off era is here to stay.

It is high time to end the hype. Bitcoin is a slow, energy-inefficient dinosaur. Most of the coins are little different from railway stocks in the 1840s, which went bust when that bubble – like most bubbles – burst.

You know it's time to worry when the conservative Republican chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations warns openly that Trump could start World War III.

Since mid 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion - yet inflation has not picked up. Why?

After six months, we can more confidently assess the prospects for the US economy under Trump's administration. Like his presidency, paradoxes abound.

In the next year, a more robust and persistent global recovery will depend largely on whether policymakers avoid mistakes that could derail it.

Despite proliferating geopolitical risks, global financial markets have reached new heights. Markets have trouble pricing "black swan" events, the "unknown unknowns" that are unlikely, but extremely costly.

Central banks have been driven to adopt increasingly unconventional monetary policies - yet most economies are far from where they need to be. We should begin activating fiscal policy now.

The EU's post-Brexit show of unity calmed fears that the EU or the eurozone would fall apart in short order. But the risk of European and global volatility may have been only briefly postponed.

The view prevailing in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs is that we are entering a new golden era of innovation which will radically increase productivity growth. Why haven't those gains appeared?

Unconventional monetary policies have themselves become conventional. Monetary policymakers will have to continue their fight with a new set of "unconventional unconventional" policies.

How much longer can markets not only ignore the real economy, but also discount political risk? Welcome to the New Abnormal for growth, inflation, monetary policies, and asset prices.

With the US on its way to energy independence, there's a risk it and its Western allies will consider the Middle East less important. That's wishful thinking - a burning Middle East can destabilise the world economically and socially.

Macro liquidity is feeding asset booms and bubbles in equity, bond, and other asset markets. As more investors pile into overvalued, increasingly illiquid assets – such as bonds – the risk of a long-term crash increases.

Since the beginning of the year, more than 20 central banks have eased monetary policy. Upward pressure on the US dollar has been sharp. America's entry into the fray was only a matter of time.

Who would have thought that six years after the GFC, most advanced economies would still be swimming in an alphabet soup?

The right policies are the opposite of those pursued by the world's major economies. No wonder global growth keeps disappointing. In a sense, we are all Japanese now.