Markets are fixated on how high the Fed will raise interest rates in the next 12 months. This is dangerously shortsighted. The real concern should be how far it could cut rates in the next deep recession.

Kenneth Rogoff | 1 comment

One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. The good news is that the welcome but modest effect on growth probably will not die out in 2016.

Kenneth Rogoff

How should one understand the disconnect between new highs reached by global equity indices and new depths plumbed by real interest rates worldwide?

Kenneth Rogoff | 3 comments

There are good reasons why central bankers receive so much media. But the bubble around their pronouncements grossly exaggerates their economic significance.

Kenneth Rogoff

Modern central banking has worked wonders to bring down inflation. Today, high inflation seems remote. But inflation is only dormant, it is certainly not dead.

Kenneth Rogoff

Moving to a twenty-first-century currency system would make it far simpler to move to a twenty-first-century central-banking regime as well.

Kenneth Rogoff

Will each future generation continue to enjoy a better quality of life than its immediate predecessor? The likely answer is yes, but the risks seem higher.

Kenneth Rogoff | 1 comment