With crisis comes opportunity. Much of the bad news is now reflected in stock prices and, while stock markets will re-test their lows in coming weeks, expect a rally during Q2 2020.

It must be something about Davos. High profile names again spoke out about the attractiveness of the equity market. But the economic cycle is not over. Boom/bust has not been banished.

With bond prices going parabolic in the past few weeks, once again market participants are wondering whether the bond market is in a bubble.

For most of the last 10 years, the world's major central banks have been creating significant amounts of cheap money, inflating several bubbles. Those bubbles are beginning to burst.

Every generation or so, things (in the economics world) break. Indeed, the history of the world's international monetary order is a history of change, occurring on average every 40 years. This current system is, therefore, long in the tooth.

Every generation or so, things (in the economics world) break. We're probably at or close to one of those once-in-a-generation moments. Watching monetary indicators is key.

Money velocity is accelerating in the US and UK, as commercial banks rediscover their appetite for risk and the two economies continue to normalise. The shift has significant implications for asset allocators.

Over the span of history, there are few years that can genuinely be considered as years on which the history of the world turned. BREXIT may be one for the UK.

Broad analysis of generally effective indicators of US recessions leads to the conclusion that recession risks in the US are clearly continuing to rise. A wide range of indicators confirm the message although some doubts remain.

The policy response to a hugely levered global economy has turned to a discussion of money creation to fund fiscal stimulus. The cure is not going ever more unconventional.

It was another great Markets Summit from PortfolioConstruction Forum last week. My key takeout is that correctly assessing China's future is one of the top three, if not the top, of our global priorities at this juncture.

For six years, the Fed operated a 'cheap money' policy. As a result, we had a 'cheap money' recovery. With the Fed now two years into tightening, the chickens are coming home to roost. The equity bear market is underway.

There's a high likelihood that global equities are already in a Bear Market. If so, assessing the likely end of the Bear Market becomes critical. Most importantly is the need to forecast the end of the recession.

Special one-off factors have underpinned Australia's record expansion. The key to forecasting the next Australian recession lies in forecasting the end of cheap money – if correct, then clearly a major investment crossroad for all Australian residents and investors.

At 94 quarters old, Australia's economic expansion is the second longest expansion on record amongst the main developed economies. Does a recession beckon?

The most important issue for investors is the risk of a US recession in 2016. It would play out to a global recession. There are cyclical, structural and secular forces at work.

Earlier this year, volatility across a whole range of key global assets reached major multi-year lows. But, equity volatility, we expect, has passed it's low for this cycle.

With global volatility at multi decade lows, the critical questions become: should we be worried or relaxed? What next? In fact, quiescent markets should be feared, not embraced.

China is in the throes of a classic credit bubble, showing all three key signs of any classic bubble. This is a big theme for markets.

What happens after 10% growth? History shows few economies last the distance.