Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | 10 March 2023

“The Fed right now should have the door wide open to a 50 basis-point move in March… They have not been this far behind the curve for a year or so.” - Larry Summers, Former US Treasury Secretary in an interview with Bloomberg (04 March 2023)

Today’s Fodder features the Key Takeouts Panel from our recent Markets Summit 2023 “Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!”. It’s available to all members and we’ll be making more sessions available each week. Meanwhile, if you were one of the 1,300+ delegates who registered to attend Markets Summit, you’re already able to watch all the sessions on-demand.

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Mark Your Diary! Finology Summit 2023 “Exploring the human factors in portfolio construction!” (AEST Wed 03 May 2023). Join us in person at our live studio, a live site, or via live stream and earn 7-11 CE hours. Registration opens next week!

Markets

India at a crossroads
India is poised to become the world’s most important country in the medium term. Yet the model that has driven India’s growth now threatens to constrain it.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Markets | Strategies | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2023

Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining! Key takeouts
Our diverse panel of experts debated which of the high conviction propositions they heard during Markets Summit 2023 they most strongly agreed with and why, including identifying “silver linings” (investment opportunities not yet fully priced into the market) and which they disagreed with most and why - and the portfolio construction implications of both.
Jacob Mitchell, Katie Hudson, Richard Quin, Daniela Jaramillo, Tim Farrelly | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Strategies

Markets Summit 2023 - Implementation Key Takeouts
There was plenty of food for thought and grist for the investment portfolio mill, coming out of the recent Markets Summit 2023 “Every VUCA cloud has a silver lining!”.
Jonathan Ramsay, InvestSense | Read, Listen, Watch

Finology | See more of Herman at Finology Summit 2023!

How finance got behavioural
Classical economists often incorporated human behaviour into their thinking. But in the 1960s and 1970s, homo economicus - the great rational agent of economic theory - was born. It was not until the 1990s that the link between human behaviour and economics began to be re-established.
Herman Brodie, Prospecta | 0.25 CE | Watch

Finology | See more of Adam at Finology Summit 2023!

The financial services industry has made money boring
The financial services industry has done the impossible and made money boring, opaque and difficult to understand. If we better understand the psychology of money, we can better help our clients.
Adam Ferrier, Thinkerbell | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Philosophy | Finology

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

Sleepwalking toward accidental conflict
America, China, and Russia are collectively sleepwalking down a path of conflict escalation, carrying high-octane fuel that could be ignited all too easily. Just like 1914.
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2023

In every way, it is different this time
As the clouds of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity continue to swirl, the silver lining is that we are on the road back to normal monetary policy settings, from abnormal, and a return to more rational asset prices. But we must be patient.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Strategies

Spotlight on High Yield Debt investments
This Spotlight highlights that High Yield Debt can be a very useful addition to most investors’ portfolios, producing returns that are close to those of Equities, but with lower risk.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Finology

Investors are blind to what they do not want to see
The theory of cognitive dissonance was proposed in the 1930s by psychologist Leon Festinger. Understanding how cognitive dissonance can bias our investment decision making, and recognising when our behaviour is being driven by it, is vital.
Herman Brodie, Prospecta | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Finology

Research Review: Hindsight bias and investing
Hindsight can be a valuable source of learning. However, hindsight is undermined by a range of factors and hindsight bias clouds judgments in all areas of life - including investing.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

Markets

Too soon for global optimism
Many who attended this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the CEOs in attendance. It was hard to reconcile this optimism economic uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets

23 global developments to watch over the next five years
Uncertainty and change are unavoidable realities of life. In the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty, I offer you this year’s global developments to watch over the next five years.
Vikram Mansharaman, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Strategies

High inflation has a silver lining for portfolios
Brace for more market volatility in 2023, and orient portfolios to resilient fixed income and equity securities, and hedge fund and infrastructure managers.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | Listen, Watch

Markets | Strategies

The US and world economy, and inflation
Nine months ago, we were told that the world would be in recession today. This did not quite happen. Now we are assured that 2023 will see a global recession, even in the US.
Woody Brock, Strategic Economic Decisions | Read

Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Economic Scenarios Roundtable: The future ain’t what it used to be!
In stage two of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, three economists described and debated three plausible, forward-looking economic and market scenarios that have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Andrew Hunt, John McDermott | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

The days of abnormal monetary policy are over
With US inflation at a 40-year high, and the housing and labour markets red hot, the US Fed has finally taken a distinct and meaningful step forward on the path back to normal. Investors need to accept that the days of abnormal monetary policy are over.
Jonathan Pain | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets

The fate of the global balance sheet
Just as the use of nuclear weapons promises “mutual assured destruction”, lack of economic cooperation will lead to “mutual assured deflation” because no single country can revive global demand.
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng | Read

Markets

Will crypto survive?
FTX may be the biggest scandal in crypto so far. But, to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of the death of crypto itself have been much exaggerated.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Asset Class Outlook Roundtable: Future ain’t what it used to be!
In this third step of our hypothetical Investment Committee meeting, a diverse panel of asset class experts debated the implications of the three economic scenarios outlined in the Economic Scenarios Roundtable for medium-term (three years) asset class returns.
Rob Mead, Joseph Lai, Jacob Mitchell and Isaac Poole | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Strategies Conference 2022

Alternatives Roundtable: The future ain’t what it used to be!
There is increasing traction for the idea that, to succeed in today’s complex, uncertain world of investing, practitioners must embrace alternative investment strategies. But are they all they’re made out to be?
Tony Davidow, Angela Ashton, Piers Bolger & Razvan Remsing | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Forum CE Library - over 700 CE/CPD hours
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Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 140 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, Legislated (was FASEA), FMA, etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

Connect with me on LinkedIn
We also let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. If LinkedIn is more your thing than Twitter, I’d welcome you connecting. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.