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Markets Summit 2011 Resources Kit In late 2010, early 2011, you only had to open a newspaper, turn on the TV or surf the internet to find a flood of debate about investment bubbles. There was talk of a gold bubble, an equities bubble, a bond bubble, a commodities bubble, an emerging markets bubble, a China bubble, another tech bubble, a social marketing bubble... Concern about investment bubbles was at an unprecedented level. PortfolioConstruction Markets Summit 2011 helped delegates decide what is and what is not, a bubble - and what that means for constructing investor portfolios... |
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Session 1: The big picture PortfolioConstruction Forum's publisher, Graham Rich, opened the Markets Summit 2011 by noting that with the global economy not even out of the woods yet, here we are again, dealing with potential investment bubbles. Our opening Economist, Dr Bob Baur, MD & Chief Economist with Principal Global Investors, gave his perspectives on what to expect of the global economy over 2011-2013 - where we are now, what's a bubble (and what's not!) and the possibilities for trouble ahead. Dr Steve Keen, Associate Professor at University of Western Sydney, followed with the prospects for Australia's economy over 2011-2013. Joe Bracken, Head of Macro Strategies at BT Investment Management, then presented his base-case asset allocation for a medium risk-tolerance, capital accumulation investor. (Joe remained with us for the day, questioning our specialists.) |
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Session 2: The outlook for global debt markets Debt market specialists Kumar Palghat, Managing Director of Kapstream Capital, and Anthony Kirkham, Head of Investment Management with Western Asset Management, presented their views on what happened in debt markets in 2010 (the surprises and lessons learned); where debt markets were at (what's a bubble and what's not), the most likely scenario(s) over 2011-2013, and the key risks and signposts to watch for. |
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Session 3: The outlook for Australian residential property Dr Steve Keen returned to argue that Australia IS in the grips of a residential property bubble. Christopher Joye, Managing Director of international real estate research advisory firm, Rismark International, then argued the opposite. It was't the first time Steve and Chris had faced off in this debate, so it was lively! |
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Session 4: The outlook for the global equities and commodities markets Four equity market specialists joined this session - Jacob Mitchell, Sydney-based Portfolio Manager with Platinum Asset Management (global equities); Hong Kong-based Anh Lu, Portfolio Manager at T. Rowe Price (Asian equities); Ric Deverell, London-based Director of Commodities with Credit Suisse (commodities); and Sean Fenton, Sydney-based Portfolio Manager with Tribeca Investment Partners (Australian equities). Each presented his/her views on what happened in their respective market in 2010 (the surprises and lessons learned); where their market was at (what’s a bubble and what’s not), the most likely scenario(s) over 2011-2013, and the key risks and signposts to watch for. |
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Session 5: Portfolio construction key takeouts Our big picture and markets specialists returned for a vigorous discussion about the 2011-2013 prospects for their competing asset classes, and the implications for constructing portfolios. Then, chief Inquisitor, Tim Farrelly, summed up the day with his key takeouts |
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