On 28 July, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. The impending announcement has observers on the edge of their seats, with many expecting it to confirm that the US economy slid into recession in the first half of 2022. But even if the announcement seems to say that, the reality is more complicated.

The recession prediction is based on two assumptions - first-quarter growth was negative, and a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. As a result, if second-quarter growth is estimated to have been neg...