The global economy has suffered two large negative supply-side shocks, first from the Covid-19 pandemic and now from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The war has further disrupted economic activity and resulted in higher inflation, because its short-term effects on supply and commodity prices have combined with the consequences of excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus across advanced economies, especially the United States but also in other advanced economies.

Putting aside the war’s profound long-term geopolitical rami...