Inflection points in inflation, interest rates and the large-scale monetary distortion of recent decades suggest the future will not repeat the same playbook as recent decades. Theoretical, mathematical and backward-looking approaches to portfolio construction risk exactly the same errors as those befalling central banks at present - errors which have significantly distorted economies. In reality, investment and economics incorporate significant elements of human behaviour and luck. Understanding the payoff profile of investments is crucial to portfolio construction with current market valuati...