Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 07 May 2021
“Of course, I hate the Bitcoin success…I think the whole development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilisation, and I’ll leave the criticism to others.” - Charlie Munger at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting (1 May 2021)
All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham

Markets

Is the US economy recovering or overheating?
Will inflation in the US this year represent “overheating” of the economy as a whole? Most likely, it will not. And while some worry that we may be returning to the 1970s, this is highly unlikely.
J. Bradford DeLong, University of California, Berkeley | Read

Markets

Words become actions, threats going nowhere
Tough conditions in global supply chains in Q1 2021 - congested logistics networks, continued demand growth and cost inflation - will take much of Q2 2021 to unwind.
Chris Rogers, Panjiva Research | Read, Watch

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

Equities to rise as we right the wrongs of the post- GFC era
Covid-accelerated trends - including digitalisation, geopolitical tension and the impact of ESG on the cost of capital - are structural and divergence within equity markets could increase.
Crispin Murray, Pendal Group | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

The resource sector has yet to peak
De-carbonisation, company management and ESG scrutiny are diminishing the influence of commodity prices on resources alpha generation. If long term sentiment begins to turn, there is significantly more value to be found in the resources sector.
Nick Pashias, Antares Capital | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Finology

Research Review: The mother of all biases
Investors rely on both their competence and confidence to make investment decisions. The overconfidence effect is sometimes dubbed the “mother of all biases”.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.00 CE | Read

Portfolio Construction Forum proudly supports The Wayside Chapel

Laughter and wisdom
Humour is a gift, which can sometimes be earned through suffering and solidarity, so I’m pleased to report that laughter is always in good supply around this place…
Jon Owen, Wayside Chapel | Read

Finology | Invitation to investment advisers

Complimentary self-assessment to benchmark your Client Care & Practice knowledge and skills
FASEA requires that financial advisers continually improve their client care and practice knowledge and skills - doing so makes obvious business sense, as well. Our new Finology Benchmarking Indices (FBI) self assessment tool helps you benchmark your investing biases, beliefs and behaviours versus peers, to further empower your “client care and practice” knowledge and skills. It’s complimentary to our members who give investment advice, while we continue to develop it.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.50 CE | Take the FBI self-assessment

Finology

"Understanding the investor mindset" Zoominar
10.00am-12.30pm, Wednesday 19 May 2021 (AEST) | 2.5 CE hours | Register now

Complimentary to all Forum members, please join us for our first Finology Zoominar of 2021, featuring:

50 shades of ESG
There are numerous ESG ratings systems out there – many of which are based on routine questions that focus on box ticking rather than understanding the real motivation of a company. Instead of asking standard questions in search of nuanced scores, we can and should focus on simple and straightforward principles to identify a company’s true purpose and ESG goals. Doing so enables investment advisers to avoid being taken in by short-term “green-washing” and meet their best interests duty obligation to ensure a client’s investments are a sound match with their values.
- Tassos Stassopoulos, Founder & CIO, Trinetra Investment Management (London)

Work matters!
A key retirement planning decision all clients face is WHEN to retire from work. If they leave work too early, they may be under-resourced and/or bored in retirement, and need or want to return to work later. If they leave too late, the decision of when to leave may be taken from them. What can investment advisers do to help clients reflect more deeply on what matters to them, and help them make better decisions about workplace exit? We’ll explore the psychological models underlying why people leave the work place, and what matters for successful workplace exit.
- Joanne Earl, PhD, Professor, Macquarie University (Sydney)

Free to all Forum members, please register now!

Markets

My worst forecasting mistake
I should have known better when I came off the bench as a retired forecaster last summer and penned a piece with the now memorable title of “America’s Coming Double Dip”.
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Read

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

Don’t be complacent, take advantage of the illiquidity premium
The illiquidity premium offers strong value over the cyclical horizon. A combination of interest rate, credit and illiquidity risks provide diversified fixed income exposures with attractive return potential.
Rob Mead, PIMCO | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

A portfolio’s cash allocation is dead
Structural factors will ensure that the cash rate cannot rise over the medium term, resulting in negligible cash returns. A core fixed income exposure consisting of Australian government bonds will outperform cash over the long term.
Chris Rands, Nikko Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

The world has entered a new investment order
The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate and is transforming macroeconomic policy, geopolitics and sustainability.
Ben Powell, BlackRock | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

High equity valuations are not due to irrational exuberance
Fiscal stimulus and the vaccine have fuelled an extraordinary rally in equities - but, ultimately, stocks are at record highs because of extraordinarily low market interest rates. Investors should be wary of inflation, but also of being underweight equities.
Arvid Streimann, Magellan Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets

Stagflation?
Excellent! Written on an analytic basis not a “buy stocks” basis. I find Dr. Nouriel Roubini an interesting character, sometimes on mark and other times definitely off mark.
Craig Offenhauser, Charter Pacific Securities | Read

Philosophy | Markets

What three economists taught us about currency regimes
A generation of great international economists is passing from the scene. Richard Cooper, Robert Mundell and John Williamson each made important contributions on a variety of topics including to the ongoing debate about optimal currency arrangements.
Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Rated #1 seen at Markets Summit 2021

Risk must beat reward in post-pandemic supply chains
Supply chain decision makers must continue to focus on mitigating risk in 2021, not maximising growth. Political risks outbalance opportunities.
Chris Rogers, Panjiva Research | 0.50 CE | Read, Watch, Listen

Markets

The Long View: Inflationary riptide or reflationary current?
With a healthy consumer, accommodative policy, accelerating GDP and the potential for herd immunity from Covid-19, the risk of a US inflationary overshoot has increased. We believe any inflation scare, however, will be short-lived.
Jeff Schulze, ClearBridge Investments | 0.50 CE | Read

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

The time is right for non-daily liquid credit strategies
Rather than accepting lower returns for liquidity, investors should go back to the drawing board and re-assess their need for daily liquidity.
Peter Robinson, CIP Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Finology

Research Review: How investors’ beliefs are shaped by experience
These two papers provide useful insights into how investors’ attitudes and behaviours evolve over time, and how our beliefs are distorted if we experience positive or negative prior returns.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.00 CE | Read

Forum CE Library - over 575CE/CPD accredited learning resources
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 540 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20 governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes)
including ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, AFA, FPA and CIMA^® CE/CPD requirements, to name a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 75 CE hours
This subset of the full Forum CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

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We also let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. If LinkedIn is more your thing than Twitter, I’d welcome you connecting. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.