Key Takeaways

• With a durable economic bottom in place, investor focus has already swung toward gauging the next recession, leading us to re-introduce the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard. Its overall green signal gives us confidence the economy can weather a winter soft patch.

• Consumer spending of stockpiled cash, combined with a business inventory restocking cycle as COVID-19 restrictions ease, should lead to a pickup in economic activity in 2021.

• The lack of long-term recessionary scarring, better demographics and easier Fed policy should help drive a quicker ...