Investment decisions are complex right now because the world is in such an unusual and fluid place.

One of the most important tasks for any decision-maker is to continuously stress-test assumptions and mark-to-market their hypotheses as to how the future will unfold. This is a never-ending process whereby one has to recursively iterate back through analysis and logic in a relentless search for the truth.

So let’s “nowcast” a little and reflect on the current state of play.

The Cold War 2.0 thesis regularly advanced by this column is, for better or worse, well and truly running its course. Almost every day...