2020 Markets Summit - program & prep

MARKETS SUMMIT 2020 - PROGRAM & PREP Despite a gloomy outlook a year ago, global economic growth continues, credit remains easy, unemployment rates are close to historical lows, and markets boomed in 2019. And yet, despite these benign conditions, elevated demand for safe-haven assets, including government bonds and gold, suggests that investors are anxious. Such fears reflect the current high VUCA - volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity - market environment which carries many risks, of course. But with those risks come opportunities, too. Portfolio construction practitioners need to discern which risks and opportunities are most likely to eventuate, whether they are already priced into markets, and how best to position portfolios as a result. Markets Summit 2020 facilitates debate on the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view) - with particular emphasis on being alert to the high VUCA risks and opportunities ahead - to aid your search for return, and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
QUICKLINKS
Overview & Registration When, where, aim, who it's suited to, CE/CPD accreditation, registration options Program & Prep - Program at a glance, Keynote Faculty, Program in full, Prep materials
PROGRAM & PREP
Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The face-to-face and online learning program features 25+ leading investment thinkers - geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts, and investment strategists - from around the world, offering their best high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view) in the context of the theme - Be alert! High VUCA ahead! - and the implications for portfolios. Program at a glance Faculty Program in full & Prep materials
PROGRAM AT A GLANCE
Tuesday 18 February 2020 7.15am-7.45am - Arrive, check in, grab a coffee/tea 7.45am-8.10am - On the move to the Theatre, take your seat 8.10am - Be seated in the Theatre 8.10am - Critical Issues Forum 1 Be Alert! High VUCA ahead! - Graham Rich 8.50am - Critical Issues Forum 2 Investing in the 2020s will mean more risk, for less reward - Ron Temple 9.15am - Critical Issues Forum 3 Global elites are failing in a high VUCA world - Dambisa Moyo 9.50am - Critical Issues Forum 4 The black swan VUCA has arrived - Jonathan Pain 10.15am - Morning break 10.45am - On the move to the Theatre 10.55am - Critical Issues Forum 5 We need to deliver better TSR - total social returns - Paras Anand 11.30am - Critical Issues Forum 6 Phase 1 won't do, global trade pain will continue in the 20s - Chris Rogers 11.55am - Critical Issues Forum 7 Pendulum of investment opportunity swings to emerging markets - Geoffrey Wong 12.20pm - Lunch break 12.50pm - On the move to Special Interests Forum rooms 1.00pm - Special Interests Forum Choice of four sessions featuring three presentations each - refer full program below 2.15pm - Afternoon break 2.40pm - On the move to the Theatre 2.50pm - Critical Issues Forum 8 Boom and Bust is not bust - Chris Watling 3.25pm - Critical Issues Forum 9 Don't fight the central banks – own bonds - Bob Michele 3.50pm - Critical Issues Forum 10 Data, models, and pre-mortem scenarios can help manage VUCA - Libby Cantrill & Rob Mead 4.15pm - Critical Issues Forum 11 Volatility is Dead. Long live Volatility - Dan Farley 4.40pm - Stretch/bio break 4.50pm - Critical Issues Forum 12 Be alert! High VUCA ahead! - Graham Rich, Samantha Milner, Charles Jamieson, Christopher Joye, Mary Manning, Mike Faulkner, Tim Toohey, Tim Farrelly, Chris Watling 5.45pm - Networking Reception 7.00pm - Markets Summit 2020 ends
FACULTY - CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM
		Markets Graham Rich, Managing Partner & Dean, Portfolio Construction Forum (Sydney) Graham is a pioneer of retail managed funds research in Australasia, and of financial planning in NZ. In 2002, Graham established Portfolio Construction Forum, the specialist, independent continuing education, accreditation and certification service for investment portfolio construction practitioners in Australia and NZ.
		Markets \| Equities - Global Ron Temple, CFA, MD & Co-Head of Multi-Asset & Head of US Equity, Lazard Asset Management (New York) Ron oversees Lazard Asset Management's multi-asset and US equity strategies, as well as several global equity strategies. He is also a Portfolio Manager/Analyst on various US and global equity teams.
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Dambisa Moyo, PhD, Global Economist (New York) Dambisa is a pre-eminent thinker, who influences key decision-makers in strategic investment and public policy. She is respected for her unique perspectives, her balance of contrarian thinking with measured judgment, and her ability to turn economic insight into investible ideas. She is a Board member of 3M Company and Chevron. Dambisa was named to the list of Time Magazine's100 Most Influential People in the World, has authored four New York Times Bestselling Books, and writes for the Financial Times, WSJ, Barrons, and Harvard Business Review.
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Jonathan Pain, Author & Publisher, The Pain Report (Sydney) Jonathan has 32 years' international investment experience, leading investment teams in London, Bahrain and Australia. The Pain Report is an independent and global perspective on financial markets and the world economy.
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Paras Anand, Head of Asset Management - Asia Pacific, Fidelity International (Singapore) Paras is responsible for working across all asset classes. He also manages the Emerging Markets and Australian Equity portfolio management teams, leads global initiatives such as systematic investment strategies and use of data, analytics and artificial intelligence in the investment process, and takes responsibility globally for ESG, Corporate Finance and Equity Capital Markets.
		Markets \| Geopolitics / Macroeconomics Chris Rogers, Supply Chain Analyst - Quantamental Research Group, Panjiva Research (London) Chris is responsible for supply chain analysis at S&P Global Market Intelligence Panjiva. His coverage includes international trade policy, operations of the logistics sector and the structuring of corporate supply chains.
		Markets \| Equities - Emerging Markets Geoffrey Wong, CFA, Portfolio Manager & Head of Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific Equities, UBS Asset Management (Singapore) Geoffrey has overall responsibility for all Emerging Markets, Asian, Japanese and Australian equity teams, strategies and research. He is also responsible for research, portfolio management and construction for Emerging Market strategies and chairs the Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Committee.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Samantha Milner, Partner and Portfolio Manager, Ares Management (Los Angeles) Samantha is Partner, Portfolio Manager and Head of US Liquid Credit Research, primarily responsible for managing the firm's US bank loan credit strategies. She serves as a member of the group's US Liquid Credit Investment Committee, and the Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Investment Committee.
		Markets \| Multi-asset Thomas Poullaouec, FIA, Head of Multi Asset Solutions Asia, T. Rowe Price (Hong Kong) Thomas is head of Multi-Asset Solutions - Asia Pacific within the Multi-Asset division. Prior to joining T. Rowe Price in 2017, he was most recently managing director and regional head for strategy and research within the Investment Solutions Group for State Street Global Advisors in Hong Kong.
		Markets \| Equities - Australian John Guadagnuolo, PhD, Investment Manager, Antares Equities (Melbourne) John is Portfolio Manager of the Ex-20 Australian Equities Fund, Ex-20 Model Portfolio and the Select Alpha Strategy. In addition, he is Deputy Portfolio Manager for the Elite Opportunities Fund, and is also responsible for researching stocks in the Transport, Technology, Retail and Online Media sectors.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Justin Tyler, CFA, Director, Daintree Capital (Sydney) Justin is a founding partner of Daintree Capital, responsible for interest rate and currency decisions. Prior to this, he was a Senior Investment Manager at Aberdeen where he specialised in inflation and interest rate decisions and was a member of Aberdeen’s Risk Oversight Group.
		Markets \| Equities - Australian Patrick Hodgens, MD & Portfolio Manager, Firetrail Investments (Sydney) In his role, Patrick is responsible for managing over $4.8bn in Australian equities across two key strategies. He has over 33 years’ experience investing in equity markets. Prior to establishing Firetrail, Patrick spent 28 years at Macquarie Group as an Executive Director and Head of Listed Equities.
		Markets \| Equities - Global REITs Stephen Hayes, Head of Global Property Securities, First Sentier Investors (Sydney) Stephen is ultimately responsible for overseeing all facets of the management of regional and global real estate securities strategies. He re-joined the company in September 2012, having previously been Head of Property Securities between 1999 and 2006.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Dean Stewart, FIIAA, Head of Quantitative and Markets Research – Macquarie Fixed Income, Macquarie Asset Management (Sydney) Dean is a senior portfolio manager for the Macquarie Multi-Asset Opportunities Fund and Macquarie Secured Finance strategy. He also heads Macquarie Fixed Income’s global research team.
		Markets \| Equities - Global Vihari Ross, Head of Research, Magellan Asset Management (Sydney) Vihari joined Magellan in 2007 and is Head of Research and a member of Magellan’s Investment Committee. She was most recently Head of Franchises and retains responsibility for research coverage of franchises stocks.
		Markets \| Equities - Global Julian McCormack, Analyst, Platinum Asset Management (Sydney) Julian joined Platinum in 2001 as an analyst. After working a year, he left to travel the world. He re-joined Platinum in 2014. As well as helping clients stay informed, he provides primary research input into Platinum's basic industries team within the investment function.
		Markets \| Equities - Infrastructure Charles Hamieh, Senior Portfolio Manager, RARE Infrastructure (Sydney) Charles is a member of the Management and Investment Leadership Team, responsible for the governance and management of the investment team and the investment process, and responsible for the performance of RARE’s investment strategies.
		Markets \| Equities - Global REITs Marco Colantonio, Director and Portfolio Manager, Resolution Capital (Sydney) Marco is one of the founding members of Resolution Capital and has over 27 years’ experience in global financial and property markets. He previously worked as a Senior Valuer at Jones Lang LaSalle and as a Consultant in JLL’s Advisory business.
		Strategies Mike Faulkner, Group CIO & Portfolio Manager, River and Mercantile Asset Management (Texas) Mike is the Lead Portfolio Manager and architect of the Global Macro Strategy. He is best known as the founder of P-Solve which he founded in 2001, and was CEO from inception through its merger with River and Mercantile Asset Management.
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Chris Watling, CEO & Chief Market Strategist, Longview Economics (London) Chris founded Longview Economics in 2003, as an independent financial markets research house. Previously, he trained at KPMG in London, before beginning his career in 1994 with Cazenove Capital, the wealth management arm of Schroders Plc.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Bob Michele, CFA, MD & CIO Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities, JP Morgan Asset Management (New York) Bob is a member of the Asset & Wealth Management Investment Committee and Asset Management Operating Committee. He chairs the GFICC Investment Strategy Committee and GFICC Operating Committee.
		Markets \| Geopolitics Libby Cantrill, CFA, Executive Vice President & Executive Officer - Public Policy, PIMCO (New York) Libby coordinates PIMCO's response to public policy issues and analyses policy and political events for the Investment Committee. Previously, Libby served as a legislative aide to a member of Congress. She has also worked in the investment banking division at Morgan Stanley.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Rob Mead, MD & Co-Head of Asia-Pacific Portfolio Management, PIMCO (Sydney) Rob is a managing director in the Sydney office, head of Australia, and co-head of Asia-Pacific portfolio management, co-overseeing the portfolio management teams in the region. He has 30 years of investment experience.
		Markets \| Multi-asset Dan Farley, CFA, Executive Vice President & CIO - Investment Solutions, State Street Global Advisors (Boston) Dan oversees a global team of over 75 investment professionals managing over US$266B in multi asset class portfolios. He is also a member of the Executive Management Group.
		Strategies \| Multi-Asset Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's Investment Strategy (Sydney) In 2003, Tim founded farrelly's Investment Strategy, the first independent, specialist asset allocation research service for investment advisory firms in Australia and NZ. Previously, he served as an executive director with Macquarie Group.
		Markets \| Debt – Global Charles Jamieson, Executive Director & CIO, Jamieson Coote Bonds (Melbourne) Charles oversees the portfolio management of Jamieson Coote Bonds' Australian and Global High Grade Bond investment strategies. He has forged a career as a seasoned bond investor since 2001 across New York, Tokyo, London and Sydney.
		Markets \| Debt – Australian Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, Coolabah Capital (Sydney) Christopher founded Coolabah Capital in 2011 and leads the firm’s short-term fixed-interest portfolio management. He is also a Contributing Editor with The Australian Financial Review.
		Markets \| Equities - Emerging Market Mary Manning, PhD, Portfolio Manager, Ellerston Capital (Sydney) Mary is a member of the investment team and is a Portfolio Manager for the Ellerston Asia Growth Fund, Ellerston Asian Investments and the Ellerston India Fund. She has over 17 years investment management expertise and joined Ellerston in 2012.
		Strategies \| Asset Allocation Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy, Yarra Capital Management (Melbourne) Tim is one of Australia’s most highly regarded economists. After a 15 year career with Goldman Sachs in which time he was Chief Economist and Head of Macro Strategy Australia and New Zealand, Tim joined Ellerston Capital in March 2017 as Chief Economist within the Global Macro Team.
PROGRAM IN FULL & PREP MATERIALS
Tuesday 18 February 2020
	8.10am-8.50am: Critical Issues Forum 1
		Markets Be alert! High VUCA ahead! Despite a gloomy outlook a year ago, global economic growth continues, credit remains easy, unemployment rates are close to historical lows, and markets boomed in 2019. And yet, despite these benign conditions, elevated demand for safe-haven assets, including government bonds and gold, suggests that investors are anxious. Such fears reflect the current high VUCA - volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity - market environment which carries many risks, of course. But with those risks come opportunities, too. Portfolio construction practitioners need to discern which risks and opportunities are most likely to eventuate, whether they are already priced into markets, and how best to position portfolios as a result. - Graham Rich, Managing Partner & Dean, Portfolio Construction Forum (Sydney) Prep! - 20 global developments to watch over the next five years - What could spoil 2020? - A global economy without a cushion - Central banks face a year of mounting challenges - When navigating uncertainty, breadth trumps depth - Seeking alpha in a VUCA world requires whole brain approach - Developing leaders in a VUCA environment - IMF - World Economic Outlook Update January 2020 - World Bank - Global Economic Prospects January 2020 - Highlights - World Economic Forum - Global Risks Report January 2020
	8.50am-9.15am: Critical Issues Forum 2
		Markets \| Equities - Global Investing in the 2020s will mean more risk, for less reward Over the last decade, investors profited handsomely in spite of lackluster global growth, as central banks inflated asset prices and companies gained the upper hand over workers. Through this time, key challenges to future growth were largely left unaddressed. In the decade ahead, ageing demographics, income inequality, market share concentration and climate change will reshape the economy, elevating the VUCA facing investors. Expected returns are likely to be lower across the asset class spectrum, while dispersion within and among asset classes will be higher, as some countries and companies anticipate and act on the challenges presented by these issues and as other fail to do so. None of these issues are able to be neatly categorised in an asset allocation table. Instead, it all requires deep fundamental research and an ability to connect the dots to determine where best to invest. - Ron Temple, CFA, MD & Co-Head of Multi-Asset & Head of US Equity, Lazard Asset Management (New York)
	9.15am-9.50am: Critical Issues Forum 3
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Global elites are failing in a high VUCA world At this year’s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, 3,000 leaders from government, corporate and non-profit institutions debated themes including global collaboration, wealth inequality and technological change. Many of the discussions revealed that global elites are struggling to respond to important economic and environmental challenges, in a highly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world. - Dambisa Moyo, PhD, Global Economist (New York) Prep! - Are businesses ready for deglobalisation?
	9.50am-10.15am: Critical Issues Forum 4
		Markets \|Macroeconomics The black swan VUCA has arrived The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 saw an acceleration in the economic integration between nations across the world. Globalisation is now, however, in reverse as we witness a rise in economic nationalism and the great decoupling between America and China. The coronavirus may well, in time, be seen as the ‘black swan’ event that amplified all the increasing vulnerabilities in the global economic system, as well as accelerating the process of deglobalisation that began in 2016. Each crisis is different and this one is very, very different. Today, China alone accounts for a third of the growth in the global economy. It is the beating heart of global supply chains, consumes about 50% of the world’s zinc, aluminium, lead, tin, nickel and copper, and between 50% to 60% of the world’s iron ore, steel, manganese ore and metallurgical coal. Never before have we seen a country the size of China lock down such vast numbers of people - estimates that approximately 400 million are now in some form of quarantine. Markets are just not priced for the scale of the seismic disruption that has just taken place in China. The economic shock to China will reverberate around the world thereby amplifying, and exposing, many of its weaknesses. - Jonathan Pain, Author & Publisher, The Pain Report (Sydney)
	10.15am-10.55am: Morning break
	10.55am-11.30am: Critical Issues Forum 5
		Markets \| Macroeconomics We need to deliver better TSR - total social returns Market capitalism has survived many rotations of the political cycle over generations, because of its extraordinary power to create wealth. But there is nothing certain or given about capitalism – and today, its future is being called into question. Three factors could disrupt the current system. Changing demographics are upending established economic truths – ageing populations change he way economics works. Climate change is challenging the way resources are allocated. And the public’s trust that capitalism will deliver a better future and ensure that rewards are earned on merit is being challenged. There are a lot of drumbeats in a growing march to fundamentally change the system that we operate in – and if we don’t change it, someone else will. - Paras Anand, Head of Asset Management - Asia Pacific, Fidelity International (Singapore)
	11.30am-11.55am: Critical Issues Forum 6
		Markets \| Geopolitics / Macroeconomics Phase 1 won't do, global trade pain will continue in the 20s The US-China trade deal was supposed to settle global trade uncertainty in 2020. Nothing could be further from the truth. China will struggle to deliver on its phase 1 trade deal commitments while the Trump administration might declare a trade war with Europe. Elsewhere uncertainties range from Brexit to RCEP. Supply chains meanwhile are in the midst of a multi-year period of restructuring, leaving decision makers uncertain of their policy environment. Diversified supply chains are vital to minimising VUCA risks into the 2020s. - Chris Rogers, Supply Chain Analyst - Quantamental Research Group, Panjiva Research (London) Prep! - Handling VUCA with HALO - Lessons for portfolio construction in 2020
	11.55am-12.20pm: Critical Issues Forum 7
		Markets \| Equities - Emerging Markets Pendulum of investment opportunity swings to emerging markets US/China trade tensions and the recent coronavirus outbreak highlight that a VUCA world abounds. However this does not change long-term trends that make emerging markets ripe for investment. EM is increasingly domestically driven, intra-EM trade is gaining a greater share of exports, and capital markets are opening up. This is occurring at the same time as increasing discretionary spending, unprecedented levels of R&D and innovation, under-penetration of credit and a blaringly wide valuation gap between EM and DM that is disconnected with economic growth outcomes. Volatility and uncertainty are constants, however they also present opportunities for the astute investor. - Geoffrey Wong, CFA, Portfolio Manager & Head of Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific Equities, UBS Asset Management (Singapore)
	12.20pm-1.00pm: Lunch break
	1.00pm-2.15pm: Special Interests Forum
	Room 1
		Markets \| Debt - Global Use structural shifts in credit markets to capitalise on VUCA Credit markets have experienced fundamental shifts since the Global Financial Crisis and are still being disrupted today. Banks have retrenched from traditional corporate lending with institutional and retail investors filling the gaps. In credit, institutional and retail investors are more diverse and generally more efficient than banks at pricing risks, reducing systemic risk but increasing asset-level risk. This shift and the current VUCA environment create opportunities for investors to increase diversification and income in their diversified portfolios, using carefully selected higher yielding parts of the credit market. - Samantha Milner, Partner and Portfolio Manager, Ares Management (Los Angeles) Prep! - Global Liquid Credit: Market Views - 2020 outlook
		Markets \| Equities - Australian Now is the time for Australian mid caps Yes, the world is changing. Rapidly. Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity are everywhere. We know that – we are reminded every day. So how can this be a good time to invest into risky assets such as mid caps? The answer is as simple as liquidity. As the old certainties break down – from politics to climate change, from monetary policy to the role of government – the response from policy makers has been to stimulate economies. Monetary and increasingly fiscal stimulus has been used to smooth the rougher edges of a world in transition. If you want evidence, then think about volatility. Where is it? This is an environment in which volatility should thrive in financial markets – which typically hate nothing more than uncertainty. Yet volatility, as measured by indices such as the VIX, remains subdued. Liquidity responses have snuffed it out. So everything is seemingly changing, yet the results are the same: markets go up over time. Disruption has been welcomed. When it comes to returns, the liquidity provided by this stimulus is particularly evident in longer dated growth assets. In the context of the Australian market, these are to be found in the mid cap sector. With disruptive models or long runways for growth, mid caps are well-suited to the low interest rates which are buttressing the world’s economy. Ironically, many benefit from the very disruption that the stimulus is seeking to soften. In terms of valuation, duration risk is reduced as rates fall and this helps the valuation of the sector, which has historically shown a better growth profile than the rest of the market. Australian mid caps is the sweet spot. They need your consideration. - John Guadagnuolo, PhD, Investment Manager, Antares Equities (Melbourne)
		Markets \| Equities - Infrastructure Infrastructure is a Bull – long live VUCA! Calendar 2019 will go down in history as one of the largest ever rallies for infrastructure securities, driven by Investors seeking low risk assets trading at attractive multiples. The sector holds unique investment characteristics - assets are long dated in nature and monopolistic, providing essential services to society. Assets are either governed by regulation or hold very long dated contracts, generally protecting against inflation or a rising cost of equity. This in turn provides a high level of predictability to future earnings and stability of dividends. Infrastructure has become a very important pillar in portfolio construction as the understanding of the sector increases globally. Infrastructure indices has provided excellent returns comparable to global equities over the last 15 years with less volatility and a higher income stream. With an aging demographic seeking more stable outcomes, many investors have been steadily increasing allocations to capture the attractiveness the sector offers. - Charles Hamieh, Senior Portfolio Manager, RARE Infrastructure (Sydney)
	Room 2
		Markets \| Debt - Global It doesn’t make sense to pay too much for negative correlation The world has checked into Hotel California – a world where low interest rates are failing to stimulate demand and monetary policy is less effective. It’s a world that is structurally changed and from which we can check out any time we like, but we can never leave. For investors, the cost of checking in will be drawdowns that are less frequent, but more VUCA. Successful adaptation will require a re-think of traditional strategic asset allocation approaches; in particular a trade-off between asset classes that are traditionally negatively correlated to risk assets, and risk assets themselves. - Justin Tyler, CFA, Director, Daintree Capital (Sydney) Prep! - It does not make sense to pay too much for negative correlation
		Markets \| Equities - Global Equities should run a lot further than you think Traditional metrics suggest equities appear overvalued, but other factors argue against this. Interest rates are currently very low, as are credit spreads. Together these make the borrowing cost for corporates low, the benefits of which accrue to shareholders. Also, economics expectations are improving, supporting equity prices. Moreover, the environment of low rates should continue due to capital expenditure being applied increasingly to IT and software. This injects capacity into the economy, which keeps inflation and interest rates lower, sustaining the equity advantage. - Mike Faulkner, Group CIO & Portfolio Manager, River and Mercantile Asset Management (Texas)
		Markets \| Equities - Global REITs Property Securities market risk premia to persist Low inflationary outcomes and very low interest rates are expected to remain in place for some time. This is despite the fact that global economic growth continues to trend upwards and private and government fundamentals remain intact. Depressed interest rates have driven strong returns from long duration assets with some investors questioning their market risk premium. In the face of current events creating some economic uncertainty, REITs have resisted the attraction of cheap credit and will continue to provide a safe haven that seeks to provide ballast to portfolios through moat-like assets and growing cash flows. - Stephen Hayes, Head of Global Property Securities, First Sentier Investors (Sydney)
	Room 3
		Markets \| Equities - Australian Market timing: The ‘big money’ is made in the waiting Trade Wars, the US Election, Brexit 3.0, natural disasters and pandemic risks are causing fear and uncertainty in Australian equity investors. Is now the time to go to cash? Throughout history, market commentators have speculated on timing the next market downturn. Selling shares at the right time can be lucrative, but as an investor, it is a high risk, low return strategy. The ‘big money’ is not made in the buying and selling. It is in the waiting. Today, ‘VUCA’ risks are elevated in the Australian equity market, but so are the opportunities. The key to capturing these is to cut through the short-term noise and focus on ‘what matters’ to long-term returns. - Patrick Hodgens, MD & Portfolio Manager, Firetrail Investments (Sydney) Prep! - Market timing - the big money is in the waiting
		Markets \| Equities - Global Bond-like equities will drown in a fiscal wave Equity markets favour “bond-like equities” at present. There is a significant risk in this behaviour – namely any rise in, or steepening of, yield curves. After years of commentary about populism, the defining feature of the phenomenon is not being priced by markets. Populists spend money! To date, the major fiscal impulse – Donald Trump’s tax cuts – appears to have largely inflated asset prices. However, there is a real chance that future fiscal impulses will be far more redistributive and inflationary. In a VUCA world, the consensus of “lower forever” may prove damaging. Practitioners should examine portfolios for slow or no growth equities, priced like bonds, whose attractions may be inundated by a wave of fiscal stimulus. - Julian McCormack, Analyst, Platinum Asset Management (Sydney)
		Markets \| Mulit-asset Reflation theme will win in 2020 VUCA will be prominent in 2020. Investors, particularly retirees are facing a “Code REDD” with reflation, election, duration and disruption all key themes. The central question of whether 2020 will be a good year or not depends on whether the market chooses to focus on the positive developments in economic data and financial conditions that could lead to reflation on the one hand, or the negative impact ongoing trade tensions could have and doubts whether strong market performance can be sustained on the other. The reflation theme will win underpin the continuing outperformance of stocks versus bonds. In fact, duration risk has infected all asset classes lowering expected returns to low to mid-single digits for bonds and mid to high single digit for stocks. Therefore the implications for portfolios is, the reflation theme is favouring a rotation into more cyclical sectors, lower duration assets and lower rating bonds. - Thomas Poullaouec, Head of Multi Asset Solutions Asia, T. Rowe Price (Hong Kong) Prep! - Why I am still confident on emerging markets - Three concerns facing asset allocation committees - Australian Market Outlook 2020 - A new era of active management looms
	Room 4
		Markets \| Debt - Global There is a clear nexus between debt and inflation The early 21st century has been distinguished by two economic conditions: high debt, and low inflation. Traditionally, many economists have viewed that high debt should be accompanied by high inflation, but now some are arguing that the high debt environment will be a cause of low inflation. The factor not being considered and driving this divergence of views, is the implication of the type of debt on the broader economy. It is private debt growth that precedes inflation growth, and the rapid accumulation of private debt causes household balance sheet fragility, and therefore greater susceptibility to VUCA events. While there has not been a rapid accumulation of private debt globally, Australia is a clear exception, which investors must be alert to. High household debt places Australia in a fragile position for further disinflation, implying that bond yields will remain lower for longer. Investors should look to accumulate bonds and ensure portfolios have an appropriate defensive allocation in anticipation of the next downturn. - Dean Stewart, FIIAA, Head of Quantitative and Markets Research – Macquarie Fixed Income, Macquarie Asset Management (Sydney) Prep! - Debt and inflation
		Markets \| Equities - Global Quality is the best haven in uncertain times The world is always heading into an unknown future but the threats change over time. Some of the unique elements to today’s uncertainty are the political polarisation, experimental monetary policies and high debt levels that are clouding the direction for financial markets. The best response for investors when pondering a future that is always VUCA is to ground their decisions in investment basics. For stock pickers that means looking for companies with sustainable advantages that are mispriced. In short, looking for mispriced quality companies. - Vihari Ross, Head of Research, Magellan Asset Management (Sydney)
		Markets \| Equities - Global REITs Your real estate exposure needs liquidity The retail sector has historically been the 'go to' category for investors in real estate as shopping malls enjoyed strong and stable returns relative to other more volatile segments of the real estate landscape. Ecommerce has transformed the retail supply chain, pressuring retailers and shopping centre landlords. Many investors have preferred unlisted real estate funds for their perceived lack of volatility, however many will now find themselves with over-valued retail assets and the risk of redemptions being suspended. Using listed REITs, investors can still gain exposure to high quality real estate through Global REITs, which offer exposure to other sectors experiencing better growth prospects and benefiting from tech disruption. - Marco Colantonio, Director and Portfolio Manager, Resolution Capital (Sydney)
	2.15pm-2.50pm: Afternoon break
	2.50pm-3.25pm: Critical Issues Forum 8
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Boom and Bust is not bust It must be something about Davos. Just as in January 2018, in 2020, high profile names have again spoken out about the attractiveness of the equity market despite its strong run up and, conversely, the unattractiveness of cash. Ray Dalio, in an almost like-for-like rerun of his 2018 interview in Davos, spoke about how “cash is trash”. His co-CIO Bob Prince then went one step further and laid out how “we’ve seen the end of the boom-bust cycle”. Davos’ sentiment is, as always, likely wrong - but this time, because it’s too complacent. The economic cycle is not over – boom/bust has not been banished. Imbalances continue to build in the global economy and global financial markets. In that respect and given that the cycle is 10 years old, those imbalances and associated inflationary pressures are building. While 2020 looks like plain sailing (at least for the first three quarters), the risks in 2021 (and beyond) are building. As always ‘Fade the Davos’ consensus”. - Chris Watling, CEO & Chief Market Strategist, Longview Economics (London)
	3.25pm-3.50pm: Critical Issues Forum 9
		Markets \| Debt - Global Don’t fight the central banks – own bonds At last year’s Markets Summit, we laid out of the reasons why an adequate monetary policy response from the Central Banks had the ability to assure a soft landing and avert a recession. This proved to be the case in 2019, as central banks around the world soothed asset markets by cutting policy rates at the most aggressive pace since the GFC. 2020 will continue to be a good year for investors with flexibility to invest in markets that have lagged in the bond rally but that have tailwinds - including Emerging Markets, EMFX, parts of global investment grade and US structured credit. However, after a blockbuster 2019 for bond returns, investors should moderate their return expectations, while watching for VUCA events and tail risks, especially trade, Brexit and the US elections. - Bob Michele, CFA, MD, CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities, JP Morgan Asset Management (New York) Prep! - Don't fight the central banks
	3.50pm-4.15pm: Critical Issues Forum 10
		Markets \| Debt - Global Data, models, and pre-mortem scenarios can help manage VUCA As an investor, you need to become accustomed to the fact that the VUCA issues are going to increasingly drive market outcomes. While there is no use pretending to know what 2020 will bring, educated, bottom-up portfolio processes can identify baseline views and the skew of risks around that baseline. Mapping out different scenarios with the help of data, models, and pre-mortems is a must to check your biases, challenge your own, others' and consensus views, and generate investment ideas that will help manage VUCA and target the right opportunities. - Libby Cantrill, CFA, Executive Vice President & Executive Officer - Public Policy, PIMCO (New York) - Rob Mead, MD & Co-Head of Asia-Pacific Portfolio Management, PIMCO (Sydney)
	4.15pm-4.40pm: Critical Issues Forum 11
		Markets \|Multi-asset Volatility is Dead. Long live Volatility With central banks distorting traditional valuation approaches, the sources of volatility are lining up to create new investment opportunities and risks across all asset classes. VUCA is alive and well and this may provide attractive entry points for growth assets. It also poses a challenge, as the efficacy of fixed income as a diversifying asset class has deteriorated. The environment requires a new approach – specifically, a disciplined, risk-based approach that considers the direction of market risk appetite to identify the right assets at the right time. This will be key to meeting clients real return objectives through VUCA. - Dan Farley, CFA, Executive Vice President & CIO - Investment Solutions, State Street Global Advisors (Boston)
	4.40pm-4.50pm: Stretch/bio break
	4.50pm-5.45pm: Critical Issues Forum 12
		Markets Be alert! High VUCA ahead! Our diverse panel of experts will debate which of the high-conviction propositions they heard during the day resonated most strongly - and which they disagreed with most - to help delegates think through the portfolio construction implications of what they have heard at Markets Summit 2020. - Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's Investment Strategy (Sydney) - Mike Faulkner, Group CIO & Portfolio Manager, River and Mercantile Asset Management (Texas) - Charles Jamieson, Executive Director & CIO, Jamieson Coote Bonds (Melbourne) - Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, Coolabah Capital (Sydney) - Mary Manning, PhD, Portfolio Manager, Ellerston Capital (Sydney) - Samantha Milner, Partner and Portfolio Manager, Ares Management (Los Angeles) - Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy, Yarra Capital Management (Melbourne) - Chris Watling, CEO & Chief Market Strategist, Longview Economics (London)
	5.45pm-7.00pm: Networking Drinks
	7.00pm: Markets Summit 2020 ends

MARKETS SUMMIT 2020 - PROGRAM & PREP Despite a gloomy outlook a year ago, global economic growth continues, credit remains easy, unemployment rates are close to historical lows, and markets boomed in 2019. And yet, despite these benign conditions, elevated demand for safe-haven assets, including government bonds and gold, suggests that investors are anxious. Such fears reflect the current high VUCA - volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity - market environment which carries many risks, of course. But with those risks come opportunities, too. Portfolio construction practitioners need to discern which risks and opportunities are most likely to eventuate, whether they are already priced into markets, and how best to position portfolios as a result. Markets Summit 2020 facilitates debate on the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view) - with particular emphasis on being alert to the high VUCA risks and opportunities ahead - to aid your search for return, and to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
QUICKLINKS
Overview & Registration When, where, aim, who it's suited to, CE/CPD accreditation, registration options Program & Prep - Program at a glance, Keynote Faculty, Program in full, Prep materials
PROGRAM & PREP
Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. The face-to-face and online learning program features 25+ leading investment thinkers - geopolitical specialists, economists, market/asset class experts, and investment strategists - from around the world, offering their best high conviction ideas on the drivers of and outlook for the markets (on a three- to five-year view) in the context of the theme - Be alert! High VUCA ahead! - and the implications for portfolios. Program at a glance Faculty Program in full & Prep materials
PROGRAM AT A GLANCE
Tuesday 18 February 2020 7.15am-7.45am - Arrive, check in, grab a coffee/tea 7.45am-8.10am - On the move to the Theatre, take your seat 8.10am - Be seated in the Theatre 8.10am - Critical Issues Forum 1 Be Alert! High VUCA ahead! - Graham Rich 8.50am - Critical Issues Forum 2 Investing in the 2020s will mean more risk, for less reward - Ron Temple 9.15am - Critical Issues Forum 3 Global elites are failing in a high VUCA world - Dambisa Moyo 9.50am - Critical Issues Forum 4 The black swan VUCA has arrived - Jonathan Pain 10.15am - Morning break 10.45am - On the move to the Theatre 10.55am - Critical Issues Forum 5 We need to deliver better TSR - total social returns - Paras Anand 11.30am - Critical Issues Forum 6 Phase 1 won't do, global trade pain will continue in the 20s - Chris Rogers 11.55am - Critical Issues Forum 7 Pendulum of investment opportunity swings to emerging markets - Geoffrey Wong 12.20pm - Lunch break 12.50pm - On the move to Special Interests Forum rooms 1.00pm - Special Interests Forum Choice of four sessions featuring three presentations each - refer full program below 2.15pm - Afternoon break 2.40pm - On the move to the Theatre 2.50pm - Critical Issues Forum 8 Boom and Bust is not bust - Chris Watling 3.25pm - Critical Issues Forum 9 Don't fight the central banks – own bonds - Bob Michele 3.50pm - Critical Issues Forum 10 Data, models, and pre-mortem scenarios can help manage VUCA - Libby Cantrill & Rob Mead 4.15pm - Critical Issues Forum 11 Volatility is Dead. Long live Volatility - Dan Farley 4.40pm - Stretch/bio break 4.50pm - Critical Issues Forum 12 Be alert! High VUCA ahead! - Graham Rich, Samantha Milner, Charles Jamieson, Christopher Joye, Mary Manning, Mike Faulkner, Tim Toohey, Tim Farrelly, Chris Watling 5.45pm - Networking Reception 7.00pm - Markets Summit 2020 ends
FACULTY - CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM
		Markets Graham Rich, Managing Partner & Dean, Portfolio Construction Forum (Sydney) Graham is a pioneer of retail managed funds research in Australasia, and of financial planning in NZ. In 2002, Graham established Portfolio Construction Forum, the specialist, independent continuing education, accreditation and certification service for investment portfolio construction practitioners in Australia and NZ.
		Markets \| Equities - Global Ron Temple, CFA, MD & Co-Head of Multi-Asset & Head of US Equity, Lazard Asset Management (New York) Ron oversees Lazard Asset Management's multi-asset and US equity strategies, as well as several global equity strategies. He is also a Portfolio Manager/Analyst on various US and global equity teams.
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Dambisa Moyo, PhD, Global Economist (New York) Dambisa is a pre-eminent thinker, who influences key decision-makers in strategic investment and public policy. She is respected for her unique perspectives, her balance of contrarian thinking with measured judgment, and her ability to turn economic insight into investible ideas. She is a Board member of 3M Company and Chevron. Dambisa was named to the list of Time Magazine's100 Most Influential People in the World, has authored four New York Times Bestselling Books, and writes for the Financial Times, WSJ, Barrons, and Harvard Business Review.
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Jonathan Pain, Author & Publisher, The Pain Report (Sydney) Jonathan has 32 years' international investment experience, leading investment teams in London, Bahrain and Australia. The Pain Report is an independent and global perspective on financial markets and the world economy.
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Paras Anand, Head of Asset Management - Asia Pacific, Fidelity International (Singapore) Paras is responsible for working across all asset classes. He also manages the Emerging Markets and Australian Equity portfolio management teams, leads global initiatives such as systematic investment strategies and use of data, analytics and artificial intelligence in the investment process, and takes responsibility globally for ESG, Corporate Finance and Equity Capital Markets.
		Markets \| Geopolitics / Macroeconomics Chris Rogers, Supply Chain Analyst - Quantamental Research Group, Panjiva Research (London) Chris is responsible for supply chain analysis at S&P Global Market Intelligence Panjiva. His coverage includes international trade policy, operations of the logistics sector and the structuring of corporate supply chains.
		Markets \| Equities - Emerging Markets Geoffrey Wong, CFA, Portfolio Manager & Head of Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific Equities, UBS Asset Management (Singapore) Geoffrey has overall responsibility for all Emerging Markets, Asian, Japanese and Australian equity teams, strategies and research. He is also responsible for research, portfolio management and construction for Emerging Market strategies and chairs the Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Committee.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Samantha Milner, Partner and Portfolio Manager, Ares Management (Los Angeles) Samantha is Partner, Portfolio Manager and Head of US Liquid Credit Research, primarily responsible for managing the firm's US bank loan credit strategies. She serves as a member of the group's US Liquid Credit Investment Committee, and the Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Investment Committee.
		Markets \| Multi-asset Thomas Poullaouec, FIA, Head of Multi Asset Solutions Asia, T. Rowe Price (Hong Kong) Thomas is head of Multi-Asset Solutions - Asia Pacific within the Multi-Asset division. Prior to joining T. Rowe Price in 2017, he was most recently managing director and regional head for strategy and research within the Investment Solutions Group for State Street Global Advisors in Hong Kong.
		Markets \| Equities - Australian John Guadagnuolo, PhD, Investment Manager, Antares Equities (Melbourne) John is Portfolio Manager of the Ex-20 Australian Equities Fund, Ex-20 Model Portfolio and the Select Alpha Strategy. In addition, he is Deputy Portfolio Manager for the Elite Opportunities Fund, and is also responsible for researching stocks in the Transport, Technology, Retail and Online Media sectors.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Justin Tyler, CFA, Director, Daintree Capital (Sydney) Justin is a founding partner of Daintree Capital, responsible for interest rate and currency decisions. Prior to this, he was a Senior Investment Manager at Aberdeen where he specialised in inflation and interest rate decisions and was a member of Aberdeen’s Risk Oversight Group.
		Markets \| Equities - Australian Patrick Hodgens, MD & Portfolio Manager, Firetrail Investments (Sydney) In his role, Patrick is responsible for managing over $4.8bn in Australian equities across two key strategies. He has over 33 years’ experience investing in equity markets. Prior to establishing Firetrail, Patrick spent 28 years at Macquarie Group as an Executive Director and Head of Listed Equities.
		Markets \| Equities - Global REITs Stephen Hayes, Head of Global Property Securities, First Sentier Investors (Sydney) Stephen is ultimately responsible for overseeing all facets of the management of regional and global real estate securities strategies. He re-joined the company in September 2012, having previously been Head of Property Securities between 1999 and 2006.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Dean Stewart, FIIAA, Head of Quantitative and Markets Research – Macquarie Fixed Income, Macquarie Asset Management (Sydney) Dean is a senior portfolio manager for the Macquarie Multi-Asset Opportunities Fund and Macquarie Secured Finance strategy. He also heads Macquarie Fixed Income’s global research team.
		Markets \| Equities - Global Vihari Ross, Head of Research, Magellan Asset Management (Sydney) Vihari joined Magellan in 2007 and is Head of Research and a member of Magellan’s Investment Committee. She was most recently Head of Franchises and retains responsibility for research coverage of franchises stocks.
		Markets \| Equities - Global Julian McCormack, Analyst, Platinum Asset Management (Sydney) Julian joined Platinum in 2001 as an analyst. After working a year, he left to travel the world. He re-joined Platinum in 2014. As well as helping clients stay informed, he provides primary research input into Platinum's basic industries team within the investment function.
		Markets \| Equities - Infrastructure Charles Hamieh, Senior Portfolio Manager, RARE Infrastructure (Sydney) Charles is a member of the Management and Investment Leadership Team, responsible for the governance and management of the investment team and the investment process, and responsible for the performance of RARE’s investment strategies.
		Markets \| Equities - Global REITs Marco Colantonio, Director and Portfolio Manager, Resolution Capital (Sydney) Marco is one of the founding members of Resolution Capital and has over 27 years’ experience in global financial and property markets. He previously worked as a Senior Valuer at Jones Lang LaSalle and as a Consultant in JLL’s Advisory business.
		Strategies Mike Faulkner, Group CIO & Portfolio Manager, River and Mercantile Asset Management (Texas) Mike is the Lead Portfolio Manager and architect of the Global Macro Strategy. He is best known as the founder of P-Solve which he founded in 2001, and was CEO from inception through its merger with River and Mercantile Asset Management.
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Chris Watling, CEO & Chief Market Strategist, Longview Economics (London) Chris founded Longview Economics in 2003, as an independent financial markets research house. Previously, he trained at KPMG in London, before beginning his career in 1994 with Cazenove Capital, the wealth management arm of Schroders Plc.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Bob Michele, CFA, MD & CIO Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities, JP Morgan Asset Management (New York) Bob is a member of the Asset & Wealth Management Investment Committee and Asset Management Operating Committee. He chairs the GFICC Investment Strategy Committee and GFICC Operating Committee.
		Markets \| Geopolitics Libby Cantrill, CFA, Executive Vice President & Executive Officer - Public Policy, PIMCO (New York) Libby coordinates PIMCO's response to public policy issues and analyses policy and political events for the Investment Committee. Previously, Libby served as a legislative aide to a member of Congress. She has also worked in the investment banking division at Morgan Stanley.
		Markets \| Debt - Global Rob Mead, MD & Co-Head of Asia-Pacific Portfolio Management, PIMCO (Sydney) Rob is a managing director in the Sydney office, head of Australia, and co-head of Asia-Pacific portfolio management, co-overseeing the portfolio management teams in the region. He has 30 years of investment experience.
		Markets \| Multi-asset Dan Farley, CFA, Executive Vice President & CIO - Investment Solutions, State Street Global Advisors (Boston) Dan oversees a global team of over 75 investment professionals managing over US$266B in multi asset class portfolios. He is also a member of the Executive Management Group.
		Strategies \| Multi-Asset Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's Investment Strategy (Sydney) In 2003, Tim founded farrelly's Investment Strategy, the first independent, specialist asset allocation research service for investment advisory firms in Australia and NZ. Previously, he served as an executive director with Macquarie Group.
		Markets \| Debt – Global Charles Jamieson, Executive Director & CIO, Jamieson Coote Bonds (Melbourne) Charles oversees the portfolio management of Jamieson Coote Bonds' Australian and Global High Grade Bond investment strategies. He has forged a career as a seasoned bond investor since 2001 across New York, Tokyo, London and Sydney.
		Markets \| Debt – Australian Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, Coolabah Capital (Sydney) Christopher founded Coolabah Capital in 2011 and leads the firm’s short-term fixed-interest portfolio management. He is also a Contributing Editor with The Australian Financial Review.
		Markets \| Equities - Emerging Market Mary Manning, PhD, Portfolio Manager, Ellerston Capital (Sydney) Mary is a member of the investment team and is a Portfolio Manager for the Ellerston Asia Growth Fund, Ellerston Asian Investments and the Ellerston India Fund. She has over 17 years investment management expertise and joined Ellerston in 2012.
		Strategies \| Asset Allocation Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy, Yarra Capital Management (Melbourne) Tim is one of Australia’s most highly regarded economists. After a 15 year career with Goldman Sachs in which time he was Chief Economist and Head of Macro Strategy Australia and New Zealand, Tim joined Ellerston Capital in March 2017 as Chief Economist within the Global Macro Team.
PROGRAM IN FULL & PREP MATERIALS
Tuesday 18 February 2020
	8.10am-8.50am: Critical Issues Forum 1
		Markets Be alert! High VUCA ahead! Despite a gloomy outlook a year ago, global economic growth continues, credit remains easy, unemployment rates are close to historical lows, and markets boomed in 2019. And yet, despite these benign conditions, elevated demand for safe-haven assets, including government bonds and gold, suggests that investors are anxious. Such fears reflect the current high VUCA - volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity - market environment which carries many risks, of course. But with those risks come opportunities, too. Portfolio construction practitioners need to discern which risks and opportunities are most likely to eventuate, whether they are already priced into markets, and how best to position portfolios as a result. - Graham Rich, Managing Partner & Dean, Portfolio Construction Forum (Sydney) Prep! - 20 global developments to watch over the next five years - What could spoil 2020? - A global economy without a cushion - Central banks face a year of mounting challenges - When navigating uncertainty, breadth trumps depth - Seeking alpha in a VUCA world requires whole brain approach - Developing leaders in a VUCA environment - IMF - World Economic Outlook Update January 2020 - World Bank - Global Economic Prospects January 2020 - Highlights - World Economic Forum - Global Risks Report January 2020
	8.50am-9.15am: Critical Issues Forum 2
		Markets \| Equities - Global Investing in the 2020s will mean more risk, for less reward Over the last decade, investors profited handsomely in spite of lackluster global growth, as central banks inflated asset prices and companies gained the upper hand over workers. Through this time, key challenges to future growth were largely left unaddressed. In the decade ahead, ageing demographics, income inequality, market share concentration and climate change will reshape the economy, elevating the VUCA facing investors. Expected returns are likely to be lower across the asset class spectrum, while dispersion within and among asset classes will be higher, as some countries and companies anticipate and act on the challenges presented by these issues and as other fail to do so. None of these issues are able to be neatly categorised in an asset allocation table. Instead, it all requires deep fundamental research and an ability to connect the dots to determine where best to invest. - Ron Temple, CFA, MD & Co-Head of Multi-Asset & Head of US Equity, Lazard Asset Management (New York)
	9.15am-9.50am: Critical Issues Forum 3
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Global elites are failing in a high VUCA world At this year’s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, 3,000 leaders from government, corporate and non-profit institutions debated themes including global collaboration, wealth inequality and technological change. Many of the discussions revealed that global elites are struggling to respond to important economic and environmental challenges, in a highly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world. - Dambisa Moyo, PhD, Global Economist (New York) Prep! - Are businesses ready for deglobalisation?
	9.50am-10.15am: Critical Issues Forum 4
		Markets \|Macroeconomics The black swan VUCA has arrived The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 saw an acceleration in the economic integration between nations across the world. Globalisation is now, however, in reverse as we witness a rise in economic nationalism and the great decoupling between America and China. The coronavirus may well, in time, be seen as the ‘black swan’ event that amplified all the increasing vulnerabilities in the global economic system, as well as accelerating the process of deglobalisation that began in 2016. Each crisis is different and this one is very, very different. Today, China alone accounts for a third of the growth in the global economy. It is the beating heart of global supply chains, consumes about 50% of the world’s zinc, aluminium, lead, tin, nickel and copper, and between 50% to 60% of the world’s iron ore, steel, manganese ore and metallurgical coal. Never before have we seen a country the size of China lock down such vast numbers of people - estimates that approximately 400 million are now in some form of quarantine. Markets are just not priced for the scale of the seismic disruption that has just taken place in China. The economic shock to China will reverberate around the world thereby amplifying, and exposing, many of its weaknesses. - Jonathan Pain, Author & Publisher, The Pain Report (Sydney)
	10.15am-10.55am: Morning break
	10.55am-11.30am: Critical Issues Forum 5
		Markets \| Macroeconomics We need to deliver better TSR - total social returns Market capitalism has survived many rotations of the political cycle over generations, because of its extraordinary power to create wealth. But there is nothing certain or given about capitalism – and today, its future is being called into question. Three factors could disrupt the current system. Changing demographics are upending established economic truths – ageing populations change he way economics works. Climate change is challenging the way resources are allocated. And the public’s trust that capitalism will deliver a better future and ensure that rewards are earned on merit is being challenged. There are a lot of drumbeats in a growing march to fundamentally change the system that we operate in – and if we don’t change it, someone else will. - Paras Anand, Head of Asset Management - Asia Pacific, Fidelity International (Singapore)
	11.30am-11.55am: Critical Issues Forum 6
		Markets \| Geopolitics / Macroeconomics Phase 1 won't do, global trade pain will continue in the 20s The US-China trade deal was supposed to settle global trade uncertainty in 2020. Nothing could be further from the truth. China will struggle to deliver on its phase 1 trade deal commitments while the Trump administration might declare a trade war with Europe. Elsewhere uncertainties range from Brexit to RCEP. Supply chains meanwhile are in the midst of a multi-year period of restructuring, leaving decision makers uncertain of their policy environment. Diversified supply chains are vital to minimising VUCA risks into the 2020s. - Chris Rogers, Supply Chain Analyst - Quantamental Research Group, Panjiva Research (London) Prep! - Handling VUCA with HALO - Lessons for portfolio construction in 2020
	11.55am-12.20pm: Critical Issues Forum 7
		Markets \| Equities - Emerging Markets Pendulum of investment opportunity swings to emerging markets US/China trade tensions and the recent coronavirus outbreak highlight that a VUCA world abounds. However this does not change long-term trends that make emerging markets ripe for investment. EM is increasingly domestically driven, intra-EM trade is gaining a greater share of exports, and capital markets are opening up. This is occurring at the same time as increasing discretionary spending, unprecedented levels of R&D and innovation, under-penetration of credit and a blaringly wide valuation gap between EM and DM that is disconnected with economic growth outcomes. Volatility and uncertainty are constants, however they also present opportunities for the astute investor. - Geoffrey Wong, CFA, Portfolio Manager & Head of Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific Equities, UBS Asset Management (Singapore)
	12.20pm-1.00pm: Lunch break
	1.00pm-2.15pm: Special Interests Forum
	Room 1
		Markets \| Debt - Global Use structural shifts in credit markets to capitalise on VUCA Credit markets have experienced fundamental shifts since the Global Financial Crisis and are still being disrupted today. Banks have retrenched from traditional corporate lending with institutional and retail investors filling the gaps. In credit, institutional and retail investors are more diverse and generally more efficient than banks at pricing risks, reducing systemic risk but increasing asset-level risk. This shift and the current VUCA environment create opportunities for investors to increase diversification and income in their diversified portfolios, using carefully selected higher yielding parts of the credit market. - Samantha Milner, Partner and Portfolio Manager, Ares Management (Los Angeles) Prep! - Global Liquid Credit: Market Views - 2020 outlook
		Markets \| Equities - Australian Now is the time for Australian mid caps Yes, the world is changing. Rapidly. Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity are everywhere. We know that – we are reminded every day. So how can this be a good time to invest into risky assets such as mid caps? The answer is as simple as liquidity. As the old certainties break down – from politics to climate change, from monetary policy to the role of government – the response from policy makers has been to stimulate economies. Monetary and increasingly fiscal stimulus has been used to smooth the rougher edges of a world in transition. If you want evidence, then think about volatility. Where is it? This is an environment in which volatility should thrive in financial markets – which typically hate nothing more than uncertainty. Yet volatility, as measured by indices such as the VIX, remains subdued. Liquidity responses have snuffed it out. So everything is seemingly changing, yet the results are the same: markets go up over time. Disruption has been welcomed. When it comes to returns, the liquidity provided by this stimulus is particularly evident in longer dated growth assets. In the context of the Australian market, these are to be found in the mid cap sector. With disruptive models or long runways for growth, mid caps are well-suited to the low interest rates which are buttressing the world’s economy. Ironically, many benefit from the very disruption that the stimulus is seeking to soften. In terms of valuation, duration risk is reduced as rates fall and this helps the valuation of the sector, which has historically shown a better growth profile than the rest of the market. Australian mid caps is the sweet spot. They need your consideration. - John Guadagnuolo, PhD, Investment Manager, Antares Equities (Melbourne)
		Markets \| Equities - Infrastructure Infrastructure is a Bull – long live VUCA! Calendar 2019 will go down in history as one of the largest ever rallies for infrastructure securities, driven by Investors seeking low risk assets trading at attractive multiples. The sector holds unique investment characteristics - assets are long dated in nature and monopolistic, providing essential services to society. Assets are either governed by regulation or hold very long dated contracts, generally protecting against inflation or a rising cost of equity. This in turn provides a high level of predictability to future earnings and stability of dividends. Infrastructure has become a very important pillar in portfolio construction as the understanding of the sector increases globally. Infrastructure indices has provided excellent returns comparable to global equities over the last 15 years with less volatility and a higher income stream. With an aging demographic seeking more stable outcomes, many investors have been steadily increasing allocations to capture the attractiveness the sector offers. - Charles Hamieh, Senior Portfolio Manager, RARE Infrastructure (Sydney)
	Room 2
		Markets \| Debt - Global It doesn’t make sense to pay too much for negative correlation The world has checked into Hotel California – a world where low interest rates are failing to stimulate demand and monetary policy is less effective. It’s a world that is structurally changed and from which we can check out any time we like, but we can never leave. For investors, the cost of checking in will be drawdowns that are less frequent, but more VUCA. Successful adaptation will require a re-think of traditional strategic asset allocation approaches; in particular a trade-off between asset classes that are traditionally negatively correlated to risk assets, and risk assets themselves. - Justin Tyler, CFA, Director, Daintree Capital (Sydney) Prep! - It does not make sense to pay too much for negative correlation
		Markets \| Equities - Global Equities should run a lot further than you think Traditional metrics suggest equities appear overvalued, but other factors argue against this. Interest rates are currently very low, as are credit spreads. Together these make the borrowing cost for corporates low, the benefits of which accrue to shareholders. Also, economics expectations are improving, supporting equity prices. Moreover, the environment of low rates should continue due to capital expenditure being applied increasingly to IT and software. This injects capacity into the economy, which keeps inflation and interest rates lower, sustaining the equity advantage. - Mike Faulkner, Group CIO & Portfolio Manager, River and Mercantile Asset Management (Texas)
		Markets \| Equities - Global REITs Property Securities market risk premia to persist Low inflationary outcomes and very low interest rates are expected to remain in place for some time. This is despite the fact that global economic growth continues to trend upwards and private and government fundamentals remain intact. Depressed interest rates have driven strong returns from long duration assets with some investors questioning their market risk premium. In the face of current events creating some economic uncertainty, REITs have resisted the attraction of cheap credit and will continue to provide a safe haven that seeks to provide ballast to portfolios through moat-like assets and growing cash flows. - Stephen Hayes, Head of Global Property Securities, First Sentier Investors (Sydney)
	Room 3
		Markets \| Equities - Australian Market timing: The ‘big money’ is made in the waiting Trade Wars, the US Election, Brexit 3.0, natural disasters and pandemic risks are causing fear and uncertainty in Australian equity investors. Is now the time to go to cash? Throughout history, market commentators have speculated on timing the next market downturn. Selling shares at the right time can be lucrative, but as an investor, it is a high risk, low return strategy. The ‘big money’ is not made in the buying and selling. It is in the waiting. Today, ‘VUCA’ risks are elevated in the Australian equity market, but so are the opportunities. The key to capturing these is to cut through the short-term noise and focus on ‘what matters’ to long-term returns. - Patrick Hodgens, MD & Portfolio Manager, Firetrail Investments (Sydney) Prep! - Market timing - the big money is in the waiting
		Markets \| Equities - Global Bond-like equities will drown in a fiscal wave Equity markets favour “bond-like equities” at present. There is a significant risk in this behaviour – namely any rise in, or steepening of, yield curves. After years of commentary about populism, the defining feature of the phenomenon is not being priced by markets. Populists spend money! To date, the major fiscal impulse – Donald Trump’s tax cuts – appears to have largely inflated asset prices. However, there is a real chance that future fiscal impulses will be far more redistributive and inflationary. In a VUCA world, the consensus of “lower forever” may prove damaging. Practitioners should examine portfolios for slow or no growth equities, priced like bonds, whose attractions may be inundated by a wave of fiscal stimulus. - Julian McCormack, Analyst, Platinum Asset Management (Sydney)
		Markets \| Mulit-asset Reflation theme will win in 2020 VUCA will be prominent in 2020. Investors, particularly retirees are facing a “Code REDD” with reflation, election, duration and disruption all key themes. The central question of whether 2020 will be a good year or not depends on whether the market chooses to focus on the positive developments in economic data and financial conditions that could lead to reflation on the one hand, or the negative impact ongoing trade tensions could have and doubts whether strong market performance can be sustained on the other. The reflation theme will win underpin the continuing outperformance of stocks versus bonds. In fact, duration risk has infected all asset classes lowering expected returns to low to mid-single digits for bonds and mid to high single digit for stocks. Therefore the implications for portfolios is, the reflation theme is favouring a rotation into more cyclical sectors, lower duration assets and lower rating bonds. - Thomas Poullaouec, Head of Multi Asset Solutions Asia, T. Rowe Price (Hong Kong) Prep! - Why I am still confident on emerging markets - Three concerns facing asset allocation committees - Australian Market Outlook 2020 - A new era of active management looms
	Room 4
		Markets \| Debt - Global There is a clear nexus between debt and inflation The early 21st century has been distinguished by two economic conditions: high debt, and low inflation. Traditionally, many economists have viewed that high debt should be accompanied by high inflation, but now some are arguing that the high debt environment will be a cause of low inflation. The factor not being considered and driving this divergence of views, is the implication of the type of debt on the broader economy. It is private debt growth that precedes inflation growth, and the rapid accumulation of private debt causes household balance sheet fragility, and therefore greater susceptibility to VUCA events. While there has not been a rapid accumulation of private debt globally, Australia is a clear exception, which investors must be alert to. High household debt places Australia in a fragile position for further disinflation, implying that bond yields will remain lower for longer. Investors should look to accumulate bonds and ensure portfolios have an appropriate defensive allocation in anticipation of the next downturn. - Dean Stewart, FIIAA, Head of Quantitative and Markets Research – Macquarie Fixed Income, Macquarie Asset Management (Sydney) Prep! - Debt and inflation
		Markets \| Equities - Global Quality is the best haven in uncertain times The world is always heading into an unknown future but the threats change over time. Some of the unique elements to today’s uncertainty are the political polarisation, experimental monetary policies and high debt levels that are clouding the direction for financial markets. The best response for investors when pondering a future that is always VUCA is to ground their decisions in investment basics. For stock pickers that means looking for companies with sustainable advantages that are mispriced. In short, looking for mispriced quality companies. - Vihari Ross, Head of Research, Magellan Asset Management (Sydney)
		Markets \| Equities - Global REITs Your real estate exposure needs liquidity The retail sector has historically been the 'go to' category for investors in real estate as shopping malls enjoyed strong and stable returns relative to other more volatile segments of the real estate landscape. Ecommerce has transformed the retail supply chain, pressuring retailers and shopping centre landlords. Many investors have preferred unlisted real estate funds for their perceived lack of volatility, however many will now find themselves with over-valued retail assets and the risk of redemptions being suspended. Using listed REITs, investors can still gain exposure to high quality real estate through Global REITs, which offer exposure to other sectors experiencing better growth prospects and benefiting from tech disruption. - Marco Colantonio, Director and Portfolio Manager, Resolution Capital (Sydney)
	2.15pm-2.50pm: Afternoon break
	2.50pm-3.25pm: Critical Issues Forum 8
		Markets \| Macroeconomics Boom and Bust is not bust It must be something about Davos. Just as in January 2018, in 2020, high profile names have again spoken out about the attractiveness of the equity market despite its strong run up and, conversely, the unattractiveness of cash. Ray Dalio, in an almost like-for-like rerun of his 2018 interview in Davos, spoke about how “cash is trash”. His co-CIO Bob Prince then went one step further and laid out how “we’ve seen the end of the boom-bust cycle”. Davos’ sentiment is, as always, likely wrong - but this time, because it’s too complacent. The economic cycle is not over – boom/bust has not been banished. Imbalances continue to build in the global economy and global financial markets. In that respect and given that the cycle is 10 years old, those imbalances and associated inflationary pressures are building. While 2020 looks like plain sailing (at least for the first three quarters), the risks in 2021 (and beyond) are building. As always ‘Fade the Davos’ consensus”. - Chris Watling, CEO & Chief Market Strategist, Longview Economics (London)
	3.25pm-3.50pm: Critical Issues Forum 9
		Markets \| Debt - Global Don’t fight the central banks – own bonds At last year’s Markets Summit, we laid out of the reasons why an adequate monetary policy response from the Central Banks had the ability to assure a soft landing and avert a recession. This proved to be the case in 2019, as central banks around the world soothed asset markets by cutting policy rates at the most aggressive pace since the GFC. 2020 will continue to be a good year for investors with flexibility to invest in markets that have lagged in the bond rally but that have tailwinds - including Emerging Markets, EMFX, parts of global investment grade and US structured credit. However, after a blockbuster 2019 for bond returns, investors should moderate their return expectations, while watching for VUCA events and tail risks, especially trade, Brexit and the US elections. - Bob Michele, CFA, MD, CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities, JP Morgan Asset Management (New York) Prep! - Don't fight the central banks
	3.50pm-4.15pm: Critical Issues Forum 10
		Markets \| Debt - Global Data, models, and pre-mortem scenarios can help manage VUCA As an investor, you need to become accustomed to the fact that the VUCA issues are going to increasingly drive market outcomes. While there is no use pretending to know what 2020 will bring, educated, bottom-up portfolio processes can identify baseline views and the skew of risks around that baseline. Mapping out different scenarios with the help of data, models, and pre-mortems is a must to check your biases, challenge your own, others' and consensus views, and generate investment ideas that will help manage VUCA and target the right opportunities. - Libby Cantrill, CFA, Executive Vice President & Executive Officer - Public Policy, PIMCO (New York) - Rob Mead, MD & Co-Head of Asia-Pacific Portfolio Management, PIMCO (Sydney)
	4.15pm-4.40pm: Critical Issues Forum 11
		Markets \|Multi-asset Volatility is Dead. Long live Volatility With central banks distorting traditional valuation approaches, the sources of volatility are lining up to create new investment opportunities and risks across all asset classes. VUCA is alive and well and this may provide attractive entry points for growth assets. It also poses a challenge, as the efficacy of fixed income as a diversifying asset class has deteriorated. The environment requires a new approach – specifically, a disciplined, risk-based approach that considers the direction of market risk appetite to identify the right assets at the right time. This will be key to meeting clients real return objectives through VUCA. - Dan Farley, CFA, Executive Vice President & CIO - Investment Solutions, State Street Global Advisors (Boston)
	4.40pm-4.50pm: Stretch/bio break
	4.50pm-5.45pm: Critical Issues Forum 12
		Markets Be alert! High VUCA ahead! Our diverse panel of experts will debate which of the high-conviction propositions they heard during the day resonated most strongly - and which they disagreed with most - to help delegates think through the portfolio construction implications of what they have heard at Markets Summit 2020. - Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's Investment Strategy (Sydney) - Mike Faulkner, Group CIO & Portfolio Manager, River and Mercantile Asset Management (Texas) - Charles Jamieson, Executive Director & CIO, Jamieson Coote Bonds (Melbourne) - Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, Coolabah Capital (Sydney) - Mary Manning, PhD, Portfolio Manager, Ellerston Capital (Sydney) - Samantha Milner, Partner and Portfolio Manager, Ares Management (Los Angeles) - Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy, Yarra Capital Management (Melbourne) - Chris Watling, CEO & Chief Market Strategist, Longview Economics (London)
	5.45pm-7.00pm: Networking Drinks
	7.00pm: Markets Summit 2020 ends

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