STRATEGIES
CONFERENCE 2019 - PROGRAM & PREP
Great eyesight
depends on more than just clarity of vision - peripheral awareness, eye
co-ordination, depth perception, focus and colour sensitivity all play a
crucial role, without which our vision is impaired.
To design and build
quality portfolios capable of meeting the long-term objectives of
investors, practitioners need clear vision across a range of issues -
setting objectives, asset allocation, portfolio risk and currency
management, selecting and blending specific investments, and analysing
the resulting portfolio. Of course, hindsight has the benefit of being
20/20 vision, so we can look back with clarity on the past decade and
the portfolio construction lessons learned. But more importantly, we
need clear foresight of the forces which will influence portfolios in
the 2020s and beyond.
Strategies Conference 2019 will challenge and refresh your portfolio
construction thinking, by debating contemporary and emerging portfolio
construction strategies - with emphasis on looking ahead at
the issues that will dominate the 2020s and beyond - to provide greater
clarity in building quality portfolios.
|
QUICKLINKS |
Overview & Registration
When, where, aim, who it's suited to, CE/CPD accreditation,
registration options
Program & Prep -
Program at a glance, Keynote Faculty (detailed program, and prep materials
to come)
|
PROGRAM & PREP |
Portfolio
Construction Forum Strategies Conference is THE investment markets
scene setter of the year. The two-day, blended face-to-face and
online learning program is designed and curated by our
specialist, experienced and independent team and features our
Faculty of 50+ leading investment thinkers from around the
world. Each offers his/her best high conviction ideas on
contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, in
the context of the program theme, 20/20 vision.
Program at a glance
Faculty
Program in full & Prep
materials |
PROGRAM AT A GLANCE |
Wednesday 21
August 2019
7.15am-7.45am - Arrive, check in, grab a coffee/tea
7.45am-8.10am - On the move to the Theatre, take your
seat
8.10am - Critical Issues Forum 1
20/20 vision -
Graham Rich
8.50am - Critical Issues Forum 2
When navigating uncertainty, breadth trumps depth -
Vikram Mansharamani
10.00am - Morning break
10.30am - On the move to the Theatre
10.40am - Critical Issues Forum 3 Australia must make
5 core shifts to reach its full potential -
Katherine Wynn
11.15am - Critical Issues Forum 4 Vision matters, but
so does implementation -
Jim Creighton
11.50am - On the move to Special Interests Forum rooms
12.00pm - Special Interests Forum 1
Choice of
four sessions featuring two presentations each - refer full
program below
1.10pm - Lunch break
1.45pm - On the move to the Theatre
1.55pm - Critical Issues Forum 5 Value investing will
triumph over growth in the 2020s -
Tim Samway,
Philipp Hofflin,
Andrew Clifford,
Sonia Bluzmanis,
Lukasz de Pourbaix
3.10pm - Afternoon break
3.35pm - On the move to the Theatre
3.45pm - Critical Issues Forum 6 You are a factor
investor -
Antonio Picca
4.20pm - Critical Issues Forum 7 Systematic ESG
integration is simply smart investing -
Masja Zandbergen
4.55pm - Critical Issues Forum 8 Capitalism is about
more than making money -
Magatte Wade
5.45pm - Networking Reception in the Cafe
7.00pm - Strategies Conference 2019 day 1 ends
Thursday 22
August 2019
7.15am-7.45am - arrive, grab a coffee/tea
7.45am-7.50am - On the move to the Theatre, take your
seat
7.50am - Critical Issues Forum 9 Designing portfolios
for scenarios is critical for 20/20 portfolios -
Graham Rich,
Robert Gay,
Vikram Mansharamani,
Tim Farrelly,
John Woods,
Tracey McNaughton,
Kerr Neilson,
Mary Manning,
Michael Buchanan
9.25am - Morning break
9.55am - On the move to the Theatre
10.05am - Critical Issues Forum 9 (cont'd)
Designing portfolios for scenarios is critical for 20/20
portfolios -
Tim Farrelly,
Tracey McNaughton
10.25 am - Critical Issues Forum 10
Soapbox:
A 60/40 "balanced"
split will fail superannuants of the 2020s -
Robert Prugue,
Tim Farrelly,
Tracey McNaughton
10.40am - Critical Issues Forum 11 Seeking alpha in a
VUCA world requires a whole brain approach -
Philipp Hensler
11.15am - On the move to Special Interests Forum
11.25am - Special Interests Forum 2 Choice of four
sessions - refer full program below
12.35pm - Lunch break
1.10pm - On the move to Special Interests Forum rooms
1.20pm - Special Interests Forum 3
Choice of four sessions - refer full program below
2.30pm - Afternoon break
2.55pm - On the move to the Theatre
3.05pm - Critical Issues Forum 12 Income investors
should look beyond just yield -
Michael Martel
3.40pm - Critical Issues Forum 13 Values need to move
from peripheral vision to the focal point -
Tassos Stassopoulos
4.15pm - Critical Issues Forum 14 We will have to
choose between the US and China in the 2020s -
Tom Switzer,
Anastasia Lin,
James Laurenceson,
James Curran
5.15pm - Networking Reception
6.15pm - Strategies Conference 2019 ends |
FACULTY - CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM |
|
|
Strategies
Graham Rich,
Managing Partner & Dean, Portfolio Construction Forum (Sydney)
Graham is a pioneer of retail managed funds research in Australasia,
and of financial planning in NZ. In 2002, Graham established Portfolio
Construction Forum, the specialist, independent continuing education,
accreditation and certification service for investment portfolio
construction practitioners in Australia and NZ. |
|
|
Markets |
Macroeconomics (Global)
Vikram Mansharamani,
PhD, Lecturer, Harvard University (Boston)
Vikram first gained widespread attention with his book,
Boombustology, which offered a framework to identify and decipher
bubbles before they burst. He regularly advises sovereign wealth funds,
endowments, foundations, and family offices on how to manage investments
in the face of overwhelming uncertainty. He has taught courses on financial bubbles,
economic inequality, business ethics and governance. |
|
|
Markets |
Macroeconomics (Australia)
Katherine Wynn, PhD,
Senior Economic Advisor, CSIRO Futures (Melbourne)
CSIRO Futures is the strategic advisory arm of Australia’s national
science agency. Katherine draws on the research expertise within CSIRO
to advise senior decision makers in Australia's largest companies and
government on strategies to address uncertainty around future markets
and operating environments. |
|
|
Strategies |
Portfolio Analysis
Jim Creighton,
Consultant, Ironbark Longreach HQI (San Francisco)
Jim has more than 35 years of investment experience and a strong
history of quantitative innovation. He served as Global CIO at Barclays
Global Investors, Deutsche Asset Management and Northern Trust Asset
Management. In 2004, he founded Creighton AI (CAI) with the objective of
applying machine learning to create equity portfolios. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset Allocation
/ Product Selection & Blending
Tim Samway,
Managing Director, Hyperion Asset Management (Sydney) |
|
|
Strategies | Asset Allocation
/ Product Selection & Blending
Philipp Hofflin,
PhD, Portfolio Manager & Analyst, Lazard Asset Management Pacific
Co. (Sydney)
Philipp began working in the investment field in 1995. Prior to
joining Lazard in 1999, he was the Head of Financial Markets Research
with Royal & Sun Alliance in Australia, (previously Tyndall Investment
Management) and a tutor/lecturer at the University of Sydney. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset Allocation
/ Product Selection & Blending
Andrew Clifford,
Co-Founder & CIO, Platinum Asset Management (Sydney)
Andrew co-founded Platinum in 1994 as the Deputy Chief Investment
Officer, assuming the role of Chief Investment Officer in 2013. He took
over the role of Chief Executive Officer of the Platinum Group from Kerr
Neilson on 1 July 2018. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset
Allocation / Product Selection & Blending
Sonia Bluzmanis, CIMA, Portfolio Manager - Equities, BT Financial Group
(Sydney)
Sonia is responsible for management of multi-manager
equities and REITs portfolios, and for the development and maintenance of
models, as well as working with the team's analysts to conduct ,manager
research and the execution of strategy. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset Allocation
/ Product Selection & Blending
Lukasz de Pourbaix, CIMA,
Executive Director & CIO, Lonsec (Sydney)
Lukasz leads the Lonsec Investment Solutions business, delivering
portfolio solutions to financial advisers. He is chair of Lonsec's Asset
Allocation Investment Committee and a member of the Manager Selection
and Direct Equities Investment Committees. |
|
|
Strategies | Product
Selection & Blending
Antonio Picca, PhD,
Head of Factor-Based Strategies - Quantitative Equity Group, Vanguard
(Malvern)
Antonio is a senior portfolio manager and head of factor-based
strategies, responsible
for conducting and overseeing research and portfolio management for all
of active factor strategies. He did his doctoral work under
the supervision of Gene Fama. |
|
|
Philosophy
Masja Zandbergen,
CEFA, Head of Sustainability Integration, Robeco (Rotterdam)
Masja is responsible for coordinating ESG integration across asset
classes. She is the company’s spokesperson on the topic of
sustainability and works with clients to share knowledge and expertise
on this field. |
|
|
Philosophy
Magatte Wade,
Founder & CEO, Skin is Skin (Austin)
Magatte is passionate about "conscious capitalism". She is a serial
entrepreneur, inspirational speaker, and visionary business leader with
a passion for creating positive change in Africa. Magatte has spoken at
dozens of universities including Harvard, Yale, Columbia, MIT, Wharton,
Cornell and Brown, as well as at global conferences on innovation and
economic development. She writes for the Huffington Post, Barron’s, and
the UK Guardian. Magatte is a Young Global Leader with the World
Economic Forum at Davos. |
|
|
Markets | Macroeconomics
Robert Gay,
PhD, Managing Partner, Fenwick Advisers (New York)
Bob is a 30-year veteran of investment markets. He served eight years as Senior Economist with the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve in Washington DC, primarily during the
chairmanship of Paul Volcker. Following this, he worked as Senior
International Economist at Morgan Stanley and Chief Strategist for
International Markets at Bankers Trust. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset
Allocation
Tim Farrelly,
Principal, farrelly's Investment Strategy (Sydney)
farrelly's is the first independent, specialist asset allocation
research service for investment advisory firms in Australia and New
Zealand. Previously, Tim served as an executive director with Macquarie
Group. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset
Allocation
John Woods, CFA, Portfolio Manager, MLC (Sydney)
John is a co-Portfolio Manager for all the portfolios managed by the
Capital Markets Research team and has a particular focus on the tailored
portfolio, which aims to deliver absolute returns from direct listed
investments. |
|
|
Strategies
Tracey
McNaughton, CFA, Head of Asset Allocation, Wilsons (Sydney)
Tracey has over 20 years’ experience specialising in investment
strategy, across both fixed income and multi-asset. She joined financial
advisory firm, Wilsons, in 2018 from UBS Asset Management where she was
Head of Investment Strategy assisting in the management of the firm suite
of multi-asset, multi-manager funds. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset
Allocation
Kerr Neilson,
Co-Founder and Investment Analyst, Platinum Asset Management (Sydney)
Kerr founded Platinum Asset Management in 1994. In addition to
managing Platinum’s global mandates, he was CIO until
2013, and CEO until 2018. He serves as a
full-time executive director of the Platinum Group and a member of the investment team. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset
Allocation
Mary Manning, PhD,
Portfolio Manager, Ellerston Capital (Sydney)
Mary is a member of the investment team and is a Portfolio Manager
for the Ellerston Asia Growth Fund, Ellerston Asian Investments
and the Ellerston India Fund. She has over 17 years investment
management expertise and joined Ellerston in 2012. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset
Allocation
Michael Buchanan,
CFA, Deputy CIO, Western Asset Management Company
(Pasadena)
Michael oversees Global Credit Team,
which covers investment-grade, high-yield and bank loan
sectors. He also oversees the Structured Product Teams and
strategies, Chairs the Global Credit Committee and is Co-Chair of
the Asset Allocation Committee. |
|
|
Strategies
Robert Prugue,
Principal Consultant, Callidum Investment Research (Sydney)
Rob has over 30 years' experience in financial services. In 2018, he
retired as CEO of Lazard Asset Management (Asia Pacific), after 15 years
at the firm in a variety of roles. Previously, he was Head of Research
at Van Eyk Research and Director & Head of International Equities at
State Super Financial Services. |
|
|
Strategies
Philipp Hensler, D.M.,
President & COO, Epoch Investment Partners (New York)
Prior to joining Epoch in 2018, Philipp was the President and CEO of
Vontobel Asset Management, before which he was Head of
Distribution for Oppenheimer Funds. Earlier in his career, Philipp was a
Fund Manager at Coutts Bank and worked at Rothschild Bank. |
|
|
Markets | Geopolitics
Libby Cantrill,
CFA, Executive Vice President & Executive Officer - Public Policy, PIMCO
(New York)
Libby coordinates PIMCO's response to public policy issues and
analyses policy and political events for the Investment Committee.
Previously, Libby served as a legislative aide to a member of Congress.
She has also worked in the investment banking division at Morgan
Stanley. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset
Allocation
Horace "Woody" Brock,
PhD, President, Strategic Economic Decisions
(Boston)
Woody is one of the world’s foremost economists. He has spent more
than 25 years counselling global corporations on ongoing structural
changes in the global economy. His speaking engagements have included
the World Economic Forum in Davos, the CIA, The Aspen Institute, board
of directors of corporations and banks, and high net-worth family
offices, private equity groups, and hedge funds. |
|
|
Strategies | Asset
Allocation & Portfolio Risk Management
Michael Martel, MD &
Head of Portfolio Management - Investments Solutions Group, State Street
Global Advisors (Boston)
Mike is responsible for the design and management of multi-asset
class strategies. His work with clients includes aligning assets with
investment objectives, tactical asset
allocation, and employing overlay strategies to enhance return and
better manage risks. |
|
|
Philosophy
Tassos Stassopoulos,
Founder & CIO, Trinetra Investment Management (London)
Tassos uses ethnographic research to capture growth opportunities in
emerging markets. Previously, he was Head of EM Growth Equity at Ashmore,
portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, and MD at Credit Suisse. |
|
|
Markets | Geopolitics
Tom Switzer,
Executive Director, The Centre for Independent Studies (Sydney)
Tom is a former senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s US
Studies Centre (2009-17), a former editor of Spectator
Australia (2009-14), a senior federal Liberal leader adviser/speech
writer (2008), opinion editor of The Australian, (2001-08),
editorial writer at the Australian Financial Review (1998-01) and
assistant editor at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC
(1995-98). He hosts Between the Lines on the ABC’s Radio National. |
|
|
Markets | Geopolitics
Anastasia Lin,
Scholar-in-Residence, The Centre for Independent Studies (Sydney)
Anastasia is an award-winning actress, beauty pageant titleholder,
and human rights advocate. She has spoken at the National Press Club in
Washington, DC, the Oxford Union, and the Geneva Human Rights Summit at
the UN, Oslo Freedom Forum and has testified in the US Congress, the UK
Parliament, and the Taiwanese Legislative Assembly. Her articles have
appeared in The Washington Post, The Huffington Post, The Globe and
Mail, and other major newspapers. |
|
|
Markets | Geopolitics
James Laurenceson,
PhD, Acting Director - Australia-China Relations Institute, University
of Technology Sydney (Sydney)
James is a Professor at the Australia-China
Relations Institute at UTS. He has held appointments at the
University of Queensland, Shandong University (China) and Shimonoseki City University (Japan).
he was President of the Chinese
Economics Society of Australia from 2012 to 2014. |
|
|
Markets | Geopolitics
James Curran, PhD,
Professor, University of Sydney (Sydney)
James is a Professor in the Department of History, specialising in
the history of Australian and US foreign relations. In 2013, he
held the Keith Cameron Chair at University College Dublin, and in 2010
was a Fulbright scholar at Georgetown University. Prior to joining
academia, Curran worked in The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet
and the Office of National Assessments. |
|
|
Strategies
Jason Teh, Chief
Investment Officer, Vertium Asset Management (Sydney)
Jason has 20 years of Australian equity investment experience. He
founded founded Vertium Asset Management in 2017. Jason leads the
investment team and is responsible for investment philosophy,
process and portfolio management. |
|
|
Strategies
Rosie Malcolm, CFA,
Head of Franchises, Magellan Asset Management (Sydney)
Rosie joined Magellan in 2017 as an investment analyst and in 2018,
was made Head of Franchises. She is a member of the Investment
Committee. Previously, Rosie worked as analyst at Foglamp Capital, and
was 15 years at Goldman Sachs. |
|
|
Strategies
Peter Meany, Head of
Global Listed Infrastructure, Colonial First State Global Asset
Management (Sydney)
Peter established the Global Listed Infrastructure Securities
strategy in 2007. He has more than 20 years of investment experience,
including as Head of Infrastructure and Utilities Research at Credit
Suisse Equities. |
|
|
Strategies
Donald Huber, CFA,
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager - Franklin Equity Group,
Franklin Templeton Institutional (New York)
Donald is responsible
for managing institutional and retail global large-cap equity
portfolios. He
also serves as the investment team's dedicated ESG Coordinator. He entered the financial services industry in 1981. |
|
|
Strategies
Jason Koo, CIMA®,
Portfolio Manager, Macquarie Investment Management (Sydney)
Jason is
responsible for manager search and selection, investment research, and
portfolio construction analysis for the Macquarie Professional Series
Global Alternatives Fund. He is also focused on ongoing manager due
diligence for alternative manager funds. |
|
|
Strategies
James Blair,
Investment Director - Fixed Income, Capital Group (Singapore)
James has 27 years of industry experience. Prior to joining Capital
Group a year ago, James was a senior fixed income strategist at UBS
Asset Management, head of strategic accounts Asia ex-Japan at Barclays
Global Investors, and head of Asia-Pacific fixed income at Aberdeen
Asset Management. |
|
|
Strategies
Joanna Nash, CFA, VP
& Portfolio Manager, Acadian Asset Management (Sydney)
Joanna is a member of the Portfolio Management Team, focusing on
Acadian’s Australian equity strategies. Previously, she was a member of
the Scientific Active Equities team at Blackrock/BGI. |
|
|
Strategies
Warryn Robertson, Portfolio
Manager/Analyst, Lazard Asset Management Pacific Co (Sydney)
Warryn is a Portfolio Manager/Analyst on the Global Listed
Infrastructure, Global Equity Franchise, and Australian Equity teams.
Previously, he was an Associate Director at Capital Partners, and worked
at PriceWaterhouseCoopers. |
|
|
Strategies
Daniel Foley, CFA,
Associate Portfolio Manager, CBRE Clarion Securities (Radnor)
Daniel is a member of the firm's global infrastructure research team, responsible
for evaluating listed infrastructure companies in the communications and
utilities sectors globally. He
has over 12 years of financial industry experience. |
|
|
Strategies
Ashley Pittard, Head
of Global Equities, Pendal Group (Sydney)
Ashley was appointed as Head of Global Equities in 2016, responsible
for setting the strategy, processes and risk management. His experience
spans over 22 years including 20 years as a global equities fund
manager. |
|
|
Strategies
Benjamin Treacy, CFA,
Institutional Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Investments (Boston)
Benjamin is a member of the portfolio management team covering US
and Quantitative Equity strategies. Previously, he was Director of
Investment Analysis at Fidelity Management and Research Company from
2000 through 2008. |
|
|
Strategies
Jacqui Lennon, Head
of Product and Customer Experience, Allianz Retire+ (Sydney)
Jacqui leads the design and implementation of customer experience,
and product development. She has 20 years experience in financial
services, including executive roles in product design and strategy at
IRESS Ltd and Macquarie Group. |
|
|
Strategies
Mark Arnold,
CFA, CIO & Investment Committee Chair, Hyperion Asset Management
(Brisbane)
Mark is the most senior portfolio manager in the team, with
portfolio management responsibilities across all equity strategies. He
is Chair of the Investment Committee,
an executive director on the Hyperion Board, and Chair of the Executive
Committee. |
|
|
Strategies
Ned Bell, CIO &
Portfolio Manager, Bell Asset Management (Melbourne)
Ned has over 20 years’ experience researching and managing global,
international and regional equity strategies. He is primarily
responsible for the overall return outcomes of client portfolios and
providing investment leadership. |
|
|
Strategies
James Kim,
Investment Analyst, Intermede Investment Partners (San Francisco)
Prior to James's current role covering Global Technology and
Services, he was with Fidelity Management and Research in Tokyo and
Boston as an investment analyst covering the Asian technology sector
(2006-2014). |
|
|
Strategies
Tim Carleton, CFA, CMT, Principal & Portfolio Manager, Auscap Asset
Management (Sydney)
Tim is co-founder of Auscap. He has 15 years’
experience in financial services. From 2007 to 2011, he was
an Executive Director at Goldman Sachs, responsible for managing an
Australian equities long/short portfolio. Prior to 2007, he worked at
Macquarie Bank. |
|
|
Strategies
Charles Dalziell,
CFA, Investment Director, Orbis Investment Advisory (Sydney)
Charles joined Orbis in 2018 as an Investment Director representing
the global investment team in Australia. He has 23 years’ experience as
an equities analyst and portfolio manager, primarily with Sydney-based
fund manager Maple-Brown Abbott. |
|
|
Strategies
Thomas Poullaouec,
FIA, Head of Multi Asset Solutions Asia, T. Rowe Price (Hong Kong)
Thomas is head of Multi-Asset Solutions - Asia Pacific within the
Multi-Asset division. Prior to joining T. Rowe Price in 2017, he was
most managing director and regional head for strategy and research
within the Investment Solutions Group for State Street Global Advisors
in Hong Kong. |
|
|
Strategies
Rob Mead, MD &
Co-Head of Asia-Pacific Portfolio Management, PIMCO (Sydney)
Rob co-oversees the portfolio management teams in the region.
Previously, he was a portfolio manager in Munich and head of the
European investment grade corporate bond team. He has 30 years of
investment experience. |
|
|
Strategies
Nick Seeto,
Portfolio Manager, Regal Funds Management (Sydney)
Nick joined Regal Funds Management in late 2018. Previously, he was
a portfolio manager with RF Capital from 2016 to 2018, a director of
Third Moment Capital from 2013 to 2016, and Head of Exotic Derivatives
Trading at UBS Investment Bank from 2001 to 2012. |
|
|
Strategies
Jonas Palmqvist,
Portfolio Manager, Alphinity Investment Management (Sydney)
Jonas focuses on the Health Care, Energy and Materials sectors.
Previously, he was a Senior Portfolio Manager and Analyst at AMP
Capital, responsible for managing the core equity portfolios in the
Australian fundamental equities team. |
|
|
Strategies
John Julian, Investment Director & Fund
Manager, AMP Capital (Sydney)
John is an Investment Director in AMP Capital’s Global
Infrastructure Equity business, and fund manager of the AMP Capital Core
Infrastructure Fund. He has over 23 years financial sector and
investment experience. |
PROGRAM IN FULL & PREP MATERIALS |
Wednesday 21 August 2019 |
|
8.10am-8.50am: Critical
Issues Forum 1 |
|
|
Strategies
20/20
vision
Great eyesight depends on more than just clarity
of vision - peripheral awareness, eye co-ordination,
depth perception, focus and colour sensitivity all play
a crucial role, without which our vision is impaired.
To design and build quality portfolios capable of
meeting the long-term objectives of investors,
practitioners need clear vision across a range of issues
- setting objectives, asset allocation, portfolio risk
and currency management, selecting and blending specific
investments, and analysing the resulting portfolio. Of
course, hindsight has the benefit of being 20/20 vision,
so we can look back with clarity on the past decade and
the portfolio construction lessons learned. But more
importantly, we need clear foresight of the forces which
will influence portfolios in the 2020s and beyond.
-
Graham Rich, Managing Partner & Dean, Portfolio Construction
Forum (Sydney)
Prep!
-
Strategies Conference 2019 - 20/20 vision
-
Backgrounder: 5 Megatrends driving portfolio construction
-
Paradigm shifts
-
Three economic and market scenarios for 2020 portfolios
-
The case for a barbell investment strategy |
|
8.50am-10.00am: Critical
Issues Forum 2 |
|
|
Strategies
When
navigating uncertainty, breadth trumps depth
Today’s chaotic global political and economic
environment has rendered single-lens approaches to
thinking about the future less useful than historically.
To succeed within the ever-shifting context in which
investment decisions are made, investors should adopt a
multi-lens approach. Context matters, and siloed
thinking can be detrimental. Acknowledging that every
perspective is both limited and biased, breadth of
perspective can mitigate the blinders of deep expertise.
Just as capable photographers uses various lenses, so
too should portfolio managers dynamically toggle between
wide angle and telephoto lenses to spot opportunities
and identify risks.
-
Vikram Mansharamani,
PhD, Lecturer, Harvard University (Boston) |
|
10.00am-10.40am: Morning break |
|
10.40am-11.15am: Critical
Issues Forum 3 |
|
|
Strategies
Australia must make 5 core shifts to reach its full
potential
Australia has enjoyed nearly three decades of
uninterrupted economic growth – but there are sound
reasons to question whether this good fortune will
continue in the future. The world is changing rapidly
and Australia will need to adapt to keep up. The
Australian National Outlook 2019 presents two years of
integrated modelling and the expertise of Australia’s
business, academic and non-profit leaders to examine
Australia’s future. It identifies six key economic,
environmental and social challenges facing Australia,
ranging from disruptive technologies to climate change
to inequality and stagnant wage growth. Australia is at
risk of falling into a slow decline if no action is
taken, however, we have a bright future if we tackle
these challenges head on. Five core shifts – industry,
urban, energy, land and culture – are needed for
Australia to reach its full potential.
-
Katherine Wynn,
PhD, Senior Economic Advisor, CSIRO Futures (Melbourne)
Prep!
-
Australian National Outlook 2019 - Executive Summary
-
Australian National Outlook 2019 |
|
11.15am-11.50am: Critical
Issues Forum 4 |
|
|
Strategies
Vision
matters – but so does implementation
Portfolio managers do not have perfect vision. It is
possible to measure prediction accuracy for active
managers – and doing so reveals predictions for future
returns are less than the 20/20 vision we aspire to.
Prediction accuracy influences optimal portfolio
construction, with better prediction accuracy meaning
optimal portfolio construction results in more
concentrated portfolios, higher turnover, higher
position limits and higher returns and information
ratios.
-
Jim Creighton,
Consultant, Ironbark Longreach HQI (San Francisco) |
|
11.50am-12.00pm: On
the move |
|
12.00pm-1.10pm: Special
Interests Forum 1 |
|
Room 1 |
|
|
Strategies
After
value’s tough ‘10s, we must stick to our guns for ‘20s
The 2010s challenged value investors as,
paradoxically, cheap stocks became cheaper and expensive
stocks grew more expensive. The “Nifty Fifty” and the
Technology Bubble were similar. Things are not different
today. For value investors’ clients, the key challenge
is fighting FOMO - lagging indices can still be
adequate, while changing tack late in trends is
catastrophic. Entry prices, and growth, drive long-term
returns. Perceived safe havens and secular growth offer
poor future outcomes, while cyclical valuations imply
crisis. For those holding their nerve, the inconsistency
sets up a good 2020s. There is no new paradigm.
Time-tested methodologies remain critical to portfolio
success.
-
Andrew Clifford, CEO & Chief Investment
Officer, Platinum Asset Management (Sydney) |
|
|
Strategies
Retirement portfolios are riskier today than before the
GFC
Prior to the GFC, you could build a retirement
portfolio on the back of a 7% yield, virtually risk
free. Today, without that free kick, a 7% yield is a
much harder job, especially from a risk-budgeting
perspective. As an industry, we have developed new
product in the equity space to better deal with
decumulation needs, but the variance in risk results
implies not all parties are focusing on risk management
the same way. We need to better manage market beta to
help preserve capital in down markets. Otherwise, with
20/20 vision, we may find we have inadvertently exposed
the current portfolio generation to a whole new market
correction.
-
Jason Teh,
Chief Investment Officer, Vertium Asset Management (Sydney)
Prep!
-
The anatomy of bear markets |
|
Room 2 |
|
|
Strategies
In a world of low-interest rates, megatrends matter
even more
In a world of low interest rates, investment
returns in the form of yields are harder to come by.
Lower yields are also generally a reflection of a world
that offers lower returns from broad-based economic
growth. As such, an anti-dote for a low-rate environment
is investing in companies enjoying the benefits of
mega-trends, global shifts that are likely to boost
demand for the products of a firm over the long term. As
we enter the 2020s, understanding megatrends and how to
invest in them is critical for successful portfolio
construction.
-
Rosie Malcolm,
CFA, Head of Franchises, Magellan Asset Management (Sydney) |
|
|
Strategies
Pro-active investors can manage infrastructure
disruption
Investors with the vision to allocate to a
well-defined infrastructure portfolio have been rewarded
with exceptional risk-adjusted returns over the last
decade. Future return expectations are less clear due to
disruptive forces, ranging from renewable and autonomous
technologies to polar politics and un-social media.
Managing these risks requires an unrelenting focus on
improving efficiency and customer service. Pro-active
investors need to identify best practice and engage to
drive change.
-
Peter Meany,
Head of Global Listed Infrastructure, Colonial First State
Global Asset Management (Sydney) |
|
Room 3 |
|
|
Strategies
The way
risk is managed in concentrated portfolios matters
The active investment management industry is in
the throes of major upheaval. The rise of index funds
and the failure of many traditional diversified active
managers to consistently outperform their benchmarks has
led to growing demand for more concentrated, actively
managed portfolios. To generate alpha, a portfolio
manager must take risk, but the traditional tools for
measuring and analysing portfolio risk in these more
concentrated active global equity strategies may come up
short. An alternative approach, limiting the overlap of
economic exposures, more effectively creates
concentrated, yet diversified portfolios that are
capable of meeting the long-term objectives of investors
out into the 2020s, while better managing risk.
-
Donald Huber,
CFA, Senior Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Franklin
Equity Group, Franklin Templeton Institutional (New York)
Prep!
-
Managing risk in concentrated global equity portfolios |
|
|
Strategies
True
diversification is not about portfolio insurance
Investors want it all from their alternatives.
They want their alternatives to keep up with equities in
bull markets, and they expect alternatives to provide
portfolio insurance when markets fall. Insurance would
be relying on equity corrections to generate returns.
True diversification, rather, is all about adding
independent sources of return to portfolios. Through
careful manager selection, true diversification can
simultaneously reduce portfolio risk and add the
potential for higher long-term returns. Looking ahead
into the 2020s, true diversification leads us to
building alternative portfolios that can generate
returns irrespective of equity market performance.
-
Jason Koo,
CIMA, Portfolio Manager, Macquarie Investment Management
(Sydney) |
|
Room 4 |
|
|
Strategies
Alternative income streams are essential in times of
change
The recent risks to the longstanding policy
around rebating of franking credits to low-tax investors
serves as a useful reminder on the importance of having
alternative sources of income within investment
portfolios. A deliberate blend of emerging market debt
and high yield opens up another universe of liquid, high
income opportunities - which can offer an attractive
risk/return profile, relative stability in returns and
at the same time, deliver the potential of higher income
for SMSF and other retirement-focused investors.
-
James Blair,
Investment Director - Fixed Income, Capital Group (Singapore)
Prep!
-
Local currency EMD – Why it might be time to reconsider an
active allocation |
|
|
Strategies
Machine
learning gives great flexibility – and responsibility
Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning (ML),
and Deep Learning represent an important expansion of
the quantitative investors’ analytical toolkit,
providing substantial new flexibility. While its
application is relevant throughout the investment
process, the rise of such approaches represent an
evolution rather than a revolution. For the foreseeable
future, finance domain knowledge will remain essential
in its application. Portfolio constructors seeking to
gain 20/20 vision from these techniques run the risk of
astigmatism, as the opacity of some ML methods increases
the challenge of distinguishing true added value from
overfitted, data-mined results. Empirically driven
research remains a portfolio constructor’s best tool to
gain perspective and discriminate between value-added
applications of ML versus slick marketing.
-
Joanna Nash, CFA, Vice
President & Portfolio Manager, Acadian Asset Management (Sydney)
Prep!
-
Machine Learning in Quant Investing: Revolution or evolution? |
|
1.10pm-1.55pm:
Lunch break |
|
1.55pm-3.10pm: Critical
Issues Forum 5 |
|
|
Strategies
Value
investing will triumph over growth in the 2020
The decade since the Global Financial Crisis has
been a challenging period for value style equity
investing. Growth equities have outperformed value
stocks in the US market for more than 12 years, the
longest period in living memory. The dispersion in price
performance between the two styles is now the widest
it’s been over this period. Not surprisingly, investors
are questioning the ‘value’ of value investing. Value
investors argue that as we enter the 2020s, valuations
heavily favour value stocks - but growth investors argue
that investment returns in the 2020s and beyond will be
concentrated in a few winners with real earnings.
-
Tim Samway,
Managing Director, Hyperion Asset Management (Sydney)
-
Philipp Hofflin, PhD, Portfolio Manager & Analyst,
Lazard Asset Management Pacific Co. (Sydney)
-
Andrew Clifford, Co-Founder & CIO, Platinum Asset
Management (Sydney)
-
Sonia Bluzmanis, CIMA, Portfolio Manager -
Equities, BT Financial Group (Sydney)
-
Lukasz de Pourbaix,
CIMA, Executive Director & CIO, Lonsec (Sydney)
Prep!
-
Value investing addendum (Aug 2019) |
|
3.10pm-3.45pm:
Afternoon break |
|
3.45pm-4.20pm: Critical
Issues Forum 6 |
|
|
Strategies
You
are a factor investor
Factor-based investing is not a revolutionary concept.
Whether you realise it or not, you and your clients use
factors every time you make an asset allocation
decision. Factors are the underlying drivers that
influence and explain investment performance. Over the
last 50 years, the innovation in research has allowed us
to better identify and measure these drivers and to
create a factor-based framework for portfolio
construction. Historically, this framework has only been
available to quantitative active managers but, thanks to
technological innovation, it is now available to all
investors. In the 2020s, factor-based funds are going to
represent an increasing share of the active AUM. This is
not because they are superior investment vehicles, they
are just tools that enable investors to build active
portfolios in a relatively transparent and low-cost way.
Having said that, factor-based investing is not easy.
Factor performance is highly cyclical and typically
inconsistent across different economic and market
conditions. Investors need a strong discipline and a
long-term focus to increase their odds of investment
success. Combining together multiple factors using a
multifactor approach can help investors smooth the ride
and increase the chances for investment success.
-
Antonio Picca,
PhD, Head of Factor-Based Strategies - Quantitative Equity
Group, Vanguard (Malvern)
Prep!
-
Equity factor-based investing: A practitioner's guide |
|
4.20pm-4.55pm: Critical
Issues Forum 7 |
|
|
Philosophy
Systematic ESG
integration is simply smart investing
Long-term environmental, social and governance (ESG)
trends have enormous impact on economies and their
financial consequences can no longer be ignored. How a
company manages its workforce, supply chains and the
environment can have an important impact on its
valuation. Focusing on financially material ESG data and
systematically including them into investment analysis
facilitates 20/20 vision of a company’s risk-return
profile. However, there are more approaches to
integrating sustainability. Active dialogue with
companies can also enhance the value of investments.
Done the right way, sustainability integration can lead
to better risk-adjusted returns for portfolios in the
long run.
-
Masja Zandbergen,
CEFA, Head of Sustainability Integration, Robeco (Rotterdam)
Prep!
-
The big book of SI |
|
4.55pm-5.45pm: Critical
Issues Forum 8 |
|
|
Philosophy
Capitalism is about more than making money
Capitalism has brought more people out of poverty in the
past 30 years than ever before in history - yet we are
seeing a frightening revival of socialism. If we want a
vibrant capitalist future in the 21st century, we need
to support ethical legal frameworks for capitalism and
practice "Conscious Capitalism" which takes into account
key stakeholders so that business is more consistently
perceived as a win-win-win. ROI depends on the legal and
cultural ecosystems within which we do business. An
anti-capitalist reaction, leading to conflict, could
result in a 21st century even more violent than the 20th
century.
-
Magatte Wade, Founder & CEO, Skin is Skin (Austin) |
|
5.45pm-7.30pm:
Networking Reception |
|
7.30pm:
Day one ends |
Thursday 21 August 2019 |
|
7.50am-9.25am: Critical
Issues Forum 9 |
|
|
Strategies
Designing portfolios for scenarios is critical for 20/20
portfolios
A disciplined, scenarios-based approach to
determining your views on the outlook for markets and
then the asset allocation implications is vital for
building 20/20 portfolios. Determining investment
strategy by analysing issues from a number of viewpoints
allows you to arrive at plausible scenarios for how the
future may unfold.
This hypothetical Investment
Committee meeting considers three relevant, forward-looking economic
and market scenarios which have a reasonable probability
of occurring during the next two to three years:
1.
Neutral scenario - The new normal;
2. Bear scenario -
Trade wars and isolationism; and,
3. Bull scenario -
Virtuous cycle.
After our Expert Panel debates the
scenarios, the Investment Committee (delegates) determines the probabilities of the three scenarios.
-
Vikram Mansharamani,
PhD, Lecturer, Harvard University (Boston)
-
Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's Investment
Strategy (Sydney)
-
John Woods, CFA, Portfolio Manager, MLC (Sydney)
-
Tracey McNaughton, Head of Asset Allocation, Wilsons
(Sydney)
-
Kerr Neilson, Co-Founder and
Investment Analyst, Platinum Asset Management (Sydney)
-
Mary Manning, PhD, Portfolio Manager, Ellerston
Capital (Sydney)
-
Michael Buchanan, CFA, Deputy Chief Investment
Officer, Western Asset Management Company (Pasadena)
-
Rob Mead, MD & Co-Head
of Asia-Pacific Portfolio Management, PIMCO (Sydney)
-
Robert Gay,
PhD, Managing Partner, Fenwick Advisers (New York)
Prep!
-
Three economic and market scenarios for 2020 portfolios |
|
9.25am-10.05am:
Morning break |
|
10.05am-10.25am: Critical
Issues Forum 9 (cont'd) |
|
|
Strategies (Asset Allocation)
Designing portfolios for scenarios is critical for 20/20
portfolios
We consider the next steps of integrating the three
scenarios
into portfolios.
-
Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's Investment
Strategy (Sydney)
-
Tracey McNaughton, Head of Asset Allocation, Wilsons
(Sydney) |
|
10.25am-10.40am: Critical
Issues Forum 10 |
|
|
Strategies (Asset Allocation)
Soapbox:
A 60/40 "balanced" split will fail superannuants of the
2020s
Actuaries tell us that a "balanced" fund is one which
has a long-term return objective of CPI+2% (or 3)%; a
risk profile of a negative return in 1 in 7 years; and,
a maximum draw down of 10% in any one year. Yet somehow
the optimal growth/defensive asset split from the 1980s
is still considered "balanced" today - never mind that
for the first time since the 1930s, the cost of capital
is stubbornly static at a negative real return. We are
in an unique environment whereby G7 bonds are all
yielding a negative real interest rate, let alone some
showing negative nominal figures. If funds are beholden
to a 60/40 split, it is for purely for agency reasons
over their principal objectives. If investors to hold
anything near 40% in bonds, they are either going to
have to take massive idiosyncratic risk, or push up
allocation towards lower-rated fixed income securities.
The stark reality is that bonds are only a tactical
allocation as their strategic objective of CPI+
objective is at least a decade away.
-
Robert Prugue, Principal Consultant, Callidum Investment
Research (Sydney)
-
Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's Investment
Strategy (Sydney)
-
Tracey McNaughton, Head of Asset Allocation, Wilsons
(Sydney) |
|
10.40am-11.15am: Critical
Issues Forum 11 |
|
|
Strategies
Seeking
alpha in a VUCA world requires whole brain approach
Traditional left-brain investment skills are
technical analysis, mathematical prowess and logical
reasoning. Although influenced by logical factors,
changes in investment markets are often irrational and
illogical. A whole-brain approach to seeking alpha is
necessary to win in the investment game. With the help
of both the left (logical) and right (empathetic)
hemispheres of their brain, an investor is better
prepared to mitigate and adapt to unexpected market
fluctuations, and help ensure their portfolio achieves
greater financial returns. Right-brain skills are
crucial to surviving market conditions in the 2020s.
-
Philipp Hensler,
D.M., President & COO, Epoch Investment Partners (New York)
Prep!
-
The limits of theory |
|
11.15am-11.25am: On
the move |
|
11.25am-12.35pm: Special
Interests Forum 2 |
|
Room 1 |
|
|
Strategies
Equity
market’s rosy forecasts have left benchmarks broken
There is no 20-20 vision in forecasting and it
remains the most difficult task facing any investor,
particularly with heightened market uncertainty. The
extreme low rate starting point and valuation risk has
raised the stakes - mistakes at this point of the cycle
will be costly. Against such a challenged backdrop, to
achieve a satisfactory return from equities, you must
identify high quality forecastable businesses, apply a
strict valuation discipline and have the conviction to
be different from the herd. Asset allocators need to
consider concentrated strategies, for not only return
seeking but also risk mitigation.
-
Warryn Robertson, Portfolio
Manager/Analyst, Lazard Asset Management Pacific Co (Sydney) |
|
|
Strategies
Private
markets hold the answer to infrastructure alpha
Surging private market demand for core
infrastructure assets around the world is having a
meaningful impact on listed infrastructure valuations.
The return profile and alpha from infrastructure assets
is amidst the largest structural change seen in decades
as the wave of funding from private markets into direct
assets globally increases at rates never seen before.
The significant valuation gap between the listed and
direct markets presents an opportunity to arbitrage
value from the two as the gap closes. Having a singular
viewpoint is no longer enough and understanding the
weight of this change into 2020 and beyond is the key.
-
Daniel Foley, CFA, Associate
Portfolio Manager, CBRE Clarion Securities (Radnor)
Prep!
-
Private market trends suggest a listed market opportunity |
|
Room 2 |
|
|
Strategies
The
current credit cycle is set to endure
The curious combination of slow global growth,
low inflation and positive credit metrics has resulted
in ongoing central bank accommodation, lower interest
rates and healthy market technicals. When combined with
secular trends in regulation and conservative balance
sheet oversight by corporations, the current credit
cycle is likely to have longevity far beyond that of
previous cycles. Only the benefit of 20/20 vision allows
investors to build true all-weather portfolios, however,
the diverse characteristics of credit markets provides
investors the ability to construct robust portfolios
around their base case, offering investment
opportunities suitable for all potential market
environments.
-
Michael Buchanan,
CFA, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Western Asset Management
Company (Pasadena)
Prep!
-
A global credit cycle built for endurance |
|
|
Strategies
Global
equities' risk requires a different perspective
Low volatility suggests that the risk in global
equities is low. But it appears to be at its highest in
over 20 years. Sectors in favour are rewarded and grow
bigger, attracting further flows – and the trend
continues…until it doesn’t. Valuation premiums in broad
segments are a key driver of risk in today’s
environment, given valuation starting points drive
long-term returns. Opportunities exist and can be
identified by understanding a company’s true competitive
industry and environment. Moving into the 2020s, global
equity portfolios should be concentrated and highly
selective. They should be positioned to address both the
fundamental changes in the global backdrop and the
vulnerabilities in the successful styles of recent
years.
-
Ashley Pittard,
Head of Global Equities, Pendal Group (Sydney) |
|
Room 3 |
|
|
Strategies
Lagging
in rising markets can benefit portfolio outcomes
On average global equity markets rise over time
and post positive return in most years. Most investors
feel they need to capture these returns to benefit their
portfolio. Trailing a rising market can feel like
missing out. However, pure pursuit of highest returns
can have unintended consequences. Protecting capital on
the downside has a material impact on total returns due
to the power of compounding. Attractive downside
protection characteristics provide a smoother return
profile. Research demonstrates that low volatility
stocks outperform high volatility stocks on a
return-to-risk basis. Looking forward, combining low
volatility equities with other equity alternatives will
increase portfolio efficiency for clients in the 2020s
and beyond.
-
Benjamin Treacy,
CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Investments
(Boston)
Prep!
-
Choose the ‘equity escalator’ not the ‘equity rollercoaster’ |
|
|
Strategies
Australian retirees deserve better portfolios
When retirees look to what the future holds for
them, they want certainty that they won't run out of
money so they can spend the money that they do have with
confidence. Portfolio construction techniques that use
volatility as a risk metric ignore this key issue for
retirees, and traditional methodology can actually
increase the risk of retirees running out of money.
Retirement portfolios should be built with a view to
reduce this risk, and the conversation with retirees
needs to move away from projections based on averages
and volatility risk measures, towards a
probability-based assessment of running out of money.
-
Jacqui Lennon,
Head of Product and Customer Experience, Allianz Retire+
(Sydney) |
|
Room 4 |
|
|
Strategies
In a low
growth world, the value anomaly is dead
For six decades following the end of WW2, buying
stocks on short-term value heuristics such as low P/E or
P/B ratios resulted in high alpha generation that could
not be explained by the efficient market hypothesis. But
looking back 60 years only provides partial vision –
looking back further gives better context and clarity,
and shows that this “value anomaly” was driven by very
strong economic tailwinds including low oil prices, the
commercialisation of a broad range of technologies,
young growing populations, a robust middle class,
increasing female participation in the workforce, wage
arbitrage in emerging markets, increasing use and
acceptance of debt in society, and benign levels of
competition. Post 2008, the world has changed. Economic
tailwinds have reduced or reversed. Competition has
increased. Average companies have struggled. Investment
returns in the 2020s and beyond will be concentrated in
a few winners with real earnings growth. The value
anomaly is dead.
-
Mark Arnold,
CFA, CIO & Investment Committee Chair, Hyperion Asset Management
(Brisbane)
Prep!
-
In
a low growth world, the value anomaly is dead |
|
|
Strategies
Global
SMID Caps - 20/20 alpha is hiding in plain sight
At a time when investors are seemingly hand
wringing over the multitude of earnings, valuation,
macro and geopolitical risks, one of the best performing
equity sub-asset classes over 20 years is seemingly
being ignored. Global Small- and Mid-Cap (SMID) equities
come with less valuation risk than large cap growth
equities, less earnings risk than emerging markets
equities, and less liquidity risk than small cap
equities (domestic and global). Global SMID equities
also boast a superior 10-year Sharpe ratio (0.83) to
other growth sleeves like emerging markets and
Australian small cap equities. Valuation wise, global
SMID equities are trading below their five-year average
and at a material discount to large cap growth equities.
Investors should seriously consider an allocation to
global SMID equities in their portfolios.
-
Ned Bell,
Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, Bell Asset
Management (Melbourne)
Prep!
-
Global SMID Caps - 20/20 alpha is hiding in plain sight |
|
12.35pm-1.20pm:
Lunch break |
|
1.20pm-2.30pm: Special
Interests Forum 3 |
|
Room 1 |
|
|
Strategies
A great
business is an intangible business
The rise of intangible assets has created a new
level of economic potential for successful businesses.
Intangible assets are likely to continue to enable
winner takes all markets reinforced by network effects
that favour the emergence of global champions. Dominant
intangible businesses are very likely to possess
attractive economic characteristics. The ability of
companies to adapt their business models to a rapidly
evolving environment will be a key driver of their
ability to sustain long term free cash flow generation.
These changes have been accompanied by a new set of
investment and analytical challenges that must be
navigated by investors. For both growth and value
investors, the nature of fundamental analysis must
evolve to match an intangible world. Management capital
allocation ability will become ever more vital, as
dominance of asset light business models generating high
levels of profitability will create pools of capital
that will need to be allocated judiciously. The ability
of intangible businesses, particularly in technology, to
induce optimism in investors, means that valuation
discipline is also essential in order to secure good
long-term outcomes. In short, buy great businesses, but
have the patience to acquire them at compelling
valuations.
-
James Kim, Investment
Analyst - Global Technology & Services, Intermede Investment
Partners (San Francisco) |
|
|
Strategies
There is
a bullish case for the Australian economy for 2020
Many investors are reconsidering a strong
traditional overweight exposure to Australian equities.
Part of this relates to the state of the domestic
economy, where bearish commentary abounds. High
household leverage, falling residential building
approvals, changing industry dynamics and global trade
are frequently cited as reasons to be cautious. These
potential negatives need to be considered in context.
Household expenditure is healthy, wage growth is
improving, employment is strong and population growth
continues to drive demand. The Federal budget is back in
balance with fiscal stimulus and an infrastructure boom
underway. Commodity prices are high, terms of trade are
favourable, and the resource investment outlook is
positive. There are a myriad of reasons to be
optimistic, providing opportunities in the domestic
sharemarket. The structural forces driving domestic
growth continue to support an overweight allocation to
Australian equities into the 2020s.
-
Tim Carleton,
CFA, CMT, Principal & Portfolio Manager, Auscap Asset Management
(Sydney) |
|
Room 2 |
|
|
Strategies
Complacency kills - the party is over for growth
investing
Value stocks have underperformed growth stocks in
the US market for more than 12 years, the longest
stretch of underperformance in living memory. A number
of theories have been put forward to explain what has
happened and why this might be the new normal. But the
explanations are contradicted by the historical data.
This time is not different. Neither technological change
nor interest rates explain the last 12 years, rather we
have just come through a period where the starting
valuations favoured outperformance of growth stocks.
Now, as we enter the 2020s, valuations heavily favour
value stocks and the data shows that value has a greater
than 85% chance of outperforming growth from here.
-
Charles Dalziell,
CFA, Investment Director, Orbis Investment Advisory (Sydney)
Prep!
-
Complacency kills: The party is over for growth investing |
|
|
Strategies
Retirement planning must be active to get past the 2020s
It is the year 2029, let’s look back with 20/20
vision on what has mattered most to improving retirement
incomes. Technology has helped ensure customised client
preferences are at the heart of developing more
effective retirement income strategies. It’s also a
period defined as the revenge of the stock pickers.
Alpha still matters and an active approach can enhance
portfolio returns, creating extra saving to be spent in
retirement.
-
Thomas Poullaouec,
FIA, Head of Multi Asset Solutions Asia, T. Rowe Price (Hong
Kong)
Prep!
-
Seeking retirement income solutions in Asia Pacific |
|
Room 3 |
|
|
Strategies
Remove
your rose coloured binoculars, reality is setting in
The new neutral is now firmly embraced by central
bankers and investors alike. While the recalibration of
interest rate expectations has surprised many,
particularly bond bears that have migrated from
hibernation to extinction, a 1% (and falling) Australian
policy rate is your 2020 reality check. Hindsight has
taught us the importance of active core bond funds as an
insurance policy and now is the time to consider
expanding your investable universe as the secular need
for income intensifies. Seek out new investments with
‘bend but don’t break’ cash flows while maintaining an
appropriate level of insurance in your portfolio.
-
Rob Mead,
MD & Co-Head of Asia-Pacific Portfolio Management, PIMCO
(Sydney) |
|
|
Strategies
Volatility is a source of income
In times of lower growth and falling interest rates,
volatility strategies can be used to produce a steady
stream of income to complement other sources of returns
such as equities, fixed income, credit and private
equity. Carry strategies have been deployed in
other asset classes such as FX, fixed income and
commodities for many years. In the recent decade, equity
volatility carry has emerged as a source of income that
can provide equity-like characteristics but with a more
subdued risk profile. By foregoing the potential
large upside gains in direct equities, a volatility
income strategy can be used to provide a much smoother
return profile over a medium to long time horizon (3-10
years). Specifically, this means lower portfolio
volatility (standard deviation), higher risk-adjusted
returns (Sharpe Ratio) and shallower drawdowns.
Market commentary has been steering towards a more
sombre outlook in contrast to the preceding bull market
in risk assets. Major institutions such as global
pension funds have already begun to embrace equity
volatility strategies to achieve the target returns for
their members into the 2020s.
-
Nick Seeto,
Portfolio Manager, Regal Funds Management (Sydney) |
|
Room 4 |
|
|
Strategies
Investing in earnings leadership adds foresight to a
portfolio
Ten years ago, almost no-one predicted interest
rates globally to still be as low as they are today.
This has shaped the performance of investments, both of
and within global equities. Looking forward, we can
never know for certain how the macro backdrop will
change or which investment style will dominate. But we
can focus on uncovering the fundamental earnings
leadership - a stock driver where we have better insight
- to tune out market noise, enhance returns and protect
against unintended investment outcomes. A portfolio of
stocks at the right time of their individual earnings
cycles is unconstrained and can help to build portfolios
for the 2020s.
-
Jonas Palmqvist,
Portfolio Manager, Alphinity Investment Management (Sydney)
Prep!
-
Finding alpha in an earnings upgrade cycle |
|
|
Strategies
A
portfolio without infrastructure is incomplete
The current investment environment is full of
challenges. We are facing record low interest rates, a
fragile economic growth outlook, volatile markets, as
well as a myriad of political and macroeconomic risks.
Infrastructure’s ability to provide consistent returns
through market cycles, generate attractive long-term
revenue streams, and provide diversification benefits
which can help manage overall portfolio risk means it is
a must-have inclusion in a portfolio to help navigate
these challenges into the 2020s.
-
John Julian, Investment
Director & Fund Manager, AMP Capital (Sydney) |
|
2.30pm-3.05pm:
Afternoon break |
|
3.05pm-3.40pm: Critical
Issues Forum 12 |
|
|
Strategies
Income
investors should look beyond just yield
Income-oriented investing has become increasingly
popular, but it’s been a difficult environment for such
strategies given the new norm of central bank policies.
Since the start of this decade, income-focused investors
have been facing new challenges. This is especially true
in Australia where we are seeing a compression in rates
and the yields that investors are able to generate.
Investors can either accept low yields and draw down on
the balances or take on more risk in order to achieve a
higher level of income. A holistic approach to income
across the entire portfolio should have income as the
base for total return and expand the range of asset
classes to deliver yield while taking advantage of
Markowitz’s free lunch.
-
Michael Martel,
Managing Director & Head of Portfolio Management - Investments
Solutions Group, State Street Global Advisors (Boston)
|
|
3.40pm-4.15pm: Critical
Issues Forum 13 |
|
|
Finology
Values
need to move from peripheral vision to the focal point
Portfolio managers and investment advisors still
too often follow their own values, rather than their
clients’, when making investment decisions. Over the
past 20 years, readily available online information has
empowered our clients to make decisions and
revolutionise the speed of investment. However, with the
rise of AI, values have often become sidelined. In the
2020s, values will move from the periphery to the focal
point for successful investments. They enhance existing
data, provide deeper and richer understanding, resulting
in better decision making in portfolio construction.
-
Tassos Stassopoulos,
Founder & CIO, Trinetra Investment Management (London) |
|
4.15pm-5.15pm: Critical
Issues Forum 14 |
|
|
Markets
We will
have to choose between the US and China in the 2020s
For years, Australian policymakers have balanced
China's desire for an enhanced regional role with our
desire for US protection. However, there could be an
intense strategic rivalry between our major trading
partner and our major strategic ally in the 2020s, as
Washington is unlikely to let China become the dominant
military power in the region without putting up a fight.
In the increasingly intense strategic and economic
competition between Washington and Beijing, it's naive
to think Australia can just sit on the sidelines.
-
Tom Switzer, Executive Director, The Centre for
Independent Studies (Sydney)
-
Anastasia Lin, Scholar-in-Residence, The Centre for
Independent Studies (Sydney)
-
James Laurenceson, PhD, Acting Director -
Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology
Sydney (Sydney)
-
James Curran, PhD,
Professor, University of Sydney (Sydney) |
|
5.15pm-6.15pm:
Networking Drinks |
|
6.15pm: Strategies
Conference 2019 ends |
|