Reflections on the yield curve: Is this time different?

Payden & Rygel | 12 November 2018

With inversions on certain parts of the yield curve, five common misconceptions are propping up in headlines, more and more. We believe that the three-month to 10-year curve is the best curve to forecast recessions - and it still has a positive slope. We also believe that the curve is not infallible.

So we watch the leading economic indicators in tandem with the curve to forecast a recession. Typically, if a recession is around the corner, ...