The global impact of a Chinese recession

Kenneth Rogoff | Harvard University | 08 November 2018

When China finally has its inevitable growth recession - which will almost surely be amplified by a financial crisis, given the economy's massive leverage - how will the rest of world be affected? With US President Donald Trump's trade war hitting China just as growth was already slowing, this is no idle question.

Typical estimates - for example, those embodied in the International Monetary Fund's assessments of country risk - sugg...