Erica:  The US President is increasingly committed to tough action against Iraq, with or without UN agreement, if Iraq does not reveal its holdings of weapons of mass destruction and disarm. How might events in the Middle East affect the outlook for business over 2003 and 2004?

Don:  It’s useful to start by looking back at how the Gulf War in 1991 impacted on business conditions around the world.  In August 1990, Saddam Hussein ordered the invasion of Kuwait. This surprise invasion m ade people aware of the fragility of the political and military situation in the Middle East, and was negative for business confidenc...