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Symposium 2016 -
Resources Kit
Symposium facilitates debate on the three pillars of portfolio
construction – markets, strategies and investing. Established in 2011,
it is THE NZ investment markets and strategies conference of the year.
The jam-packed, two day program, featured 22 leading investment
professionals offering their expert, high conviction ideas to help build
better quality investor portfolios.
This year's special guest keynote was internationally renowned
economic and financial historian
Professor Niall Ferguson, PhD, Harvard
University professor and Stanford University senior fellow, brought to
you by PortfolioConstruction Forum, in association with The National
Business Review.
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Quicklinks |
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This online Resources Kit is a key feature of the Symposium 2016 program (in fact, all our programs feature an online Resources Kit). It
enables all Members (whether or not they were part of the "studio
audience" at the live program) to "attend". It's an
invaluable set of continuing education material.
This Resources Kit includes all the presentations and papers for each
session.
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Session
titles
Faculty of speakers
Session
resources |
An overview list of all the sessions from the jam-packed program;
22 leading investment professionals;
Presentations (sync'd video/audio with slides), papers, podcasts, slides and
Faculty bios.
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Sessions |
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The jam-packed
two-day program delivered 20+ high
conviction ideas to help build better quality investor
portfolios.
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Faculty of speakers |
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Symposium featured a stellar line up of 23
international and local experts.
Special guest keynote |
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Professor Niall Ferguson, PhD - in his first visit to NZ and only
presentation, brought to you by PortfolioConstruction Forum, in
association with The National Business Review
Prof Ferguson is an internationally renowned economic and financial
historian. He is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard
University, a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford
University, and a Senior Research Fellow at Jesus College, Oxford.
More about Niall |
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Dr Keith Suter, Managing Director, Global Directions
(Sydney)
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Dr Joanne Earl, Assoc Professor & MBA Program
Director, Flinders University (Adelaide)
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Dr Oliver Hartwich, Executive Director, The New
Zealand Initiative (Wellington)
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Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's Investment
Strategy (Sydney)
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Dori Levanoni, Partner - Investments, First Quadrant
(Los Angeles)
- brought to you by Affiliated Managers Group
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Jacob Mitchell, MD, CIO & PM, Antipodes Global
Investment Partners (Sydney)
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Sam Churchill, Head of Macro Research, Magellan Asset
Management (Sydney)
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Andrew Bascand, MD & Portfolio Manager, Harbour Asset
Management (Wellington)
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Simon Stevenson, Head of Strategy - Multi-Asset,
Schroders (Sydney)
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Bernard Del Rey, CEO, Capital Preferences (New York)
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Paul Richardson, Director & CIO, Mint Asset
Management (Auckland)
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John Valtwies, Vice President Investment Due
Diligence Group, PIMCO (Sydney)
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Christian Hawkesby, Head of Fixed Income, Harbour
Asset Management (Wellington)
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David Fisher, Global Product Manager Core Fixed
Income, PIMCO (Newport Beach)
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Bevan Graham, AMP NZ Chief Economist, AMP Capital
(Wellington)
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Manusha Samaraweera, Senior Product Associate, PIMCO (Sydney)
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Mugunthan Siva, Managing Director, India Avenue
Investment Management (Sydney)
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Hugh Giddy, Senior PM & Head of Investment Research,
Investors Mutual (Sydney)
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Adam Grotzinger, Senior VP & Portfolio Manager,
Neuberger Berman (Singapore)
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Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum
(Sydney)
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Andrew Mehrtens, Assoc Director Business Development,
NAB Asset Servicing (Sydney)
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Bruce Edgar, Bruce Edgar Consulting (Wellington)
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Session resources |
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CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM 1 |
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Facilitating debate on the markets, strategies & investing
PortfolioConstruction Forum Publisher and Symposium Moderator,
Graham Rich, opened Symposium 2016 in his usual
thought-provoking (and entertaining) way.
Graham Rich, Managing
Partner & Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum (Sydney) |
Resources
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Pay attention to geo-politics
when making investment decisions
The world seems an increasingly dangerous place, driven by
uncertainty and conflict – from the break-up of Ukraine, to the
rise of religious extremism in the Middle East, and the growing
economic and political influence of China. The sense of chaos is
exacerbated by a fragmented mass media which seeks to entertain,
rather than provide meaningful analysis of global events. Yet on
many measures, the world is becoming safer, as the spread of
democracy reduces the threat of armed conflict between nations.
More than ever, investors need to filter out the noise and
consider the emerging geo-political developments which are
shaping the world.
Dr Keith Suter, Managing Director, Global Directions (Sydney) |
Resources
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Ride the cycle but structural
weakness will come to matter more
The Great Recession and, more recently, the weakness in
commodity prices has exposed structural weaknesses in many of
the world's advanced and developing economies. Structural
problems require structural solutions - however, in many
countries, the policy response to date has been largely
cyclical, with an over-reliance on monetary policy. While that
can be good for economic growth and returns in the near-term,
long-term investors need to be wary that without much needed
reform, structural weaknesses will be the ultimate determinant
of longer-term returns.
Bevan Graham, AMP NZ Chief Economist, AMP
Capital (Wellington) |
Resources
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CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM 2 |
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Time to sell/short beneficiaries
of the US high yield debt bubble
The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield
(non-investment grade corporate debt) cycle into unchartered
territory, with the stock of debt outstanding and the average
leverage ratio expanding significantly beyond the previous 2007
profit cycle peak. The cycle is approaching the shakeout phase.
The recent widening of spreads, triggered by commodity market
dislocation, is unlikely to remain siloed as interlinked funding
mechanisms react to accelerating bankruptcies. There are
long/short opportunities amongst the beneficiaries of the
current cycle – the issuers that have applied the funds to fast
track corporate ambitions via capital spending, M&A and buybacks
and, accordingly, attract a growth premium.
Jacob Mitchell, Managing Director, CIO &
Portfolio Manager, Antipodes
Global Investment Partners (Sydney)
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Resources
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Going negative - rethink
investing in a world of low returns
Although the world continues to heal from the Global Financial
Crisis, progress has been slow. Eight years on and despite
deleveraging of household and corporate balance sheets in some
regions, overall levels of debt remain formidable. This,
combined with increased regulation, a distinct lack of capital
investment, unfavorable demographics and a host of other
headwinds, has resulted in anaemic levels of growth. In the
absence of any real structural reform or fiscal support, central
banks have been left to do the heavy lifting. The result? Record
low cash rates, unconventional monetary policy and a re-think of
the assumption that 0% represented the lower bound for interest
rates. While not every country in the world is facing a scenario
as extreme as negative interest rates, nearly every investor is
confronting the challenge of how to invest in a low growth, low
return environment. This situation is expected to persist for
the foreseeable future, forcing investors to rethink traditional
assumptions and approaches to portfolio construction.
David Fisher, Global Product Manager -
Core Fixed Income,
PIMCO (Newport Beach)
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Resources
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Secular stagnation or inflection
point? The post-crisis world in historical perspective
With a growing number of
central banks resorting to negative interest rates and the
International Monetary Fund acknowledging the risk of "secular
stagnation" in its latest World Economic Outlook, investors
could be forgiven for feeling nervous. Fears persist of a US
stock market correction, or even a US recession. Yet there is
some evidence that the global economy may be at an inflection
point. Stagnation seems hard to
escape from in Japan and some European economies, but elsewhere
the post-crisis inflection point might just have arrived.
Professor Niall Ferguson, PhD, Harvard
University professor and Stanford University senior fellow
- brought to you by PortfolioConstruction Forum
in association with The National Business Review
Q&A Panel
Dr Oliver Hartwich, Executive Director,
The New Zealand Initiative (Wellington)
Dr Keith Suter, Managing Director, Global Directions (Sydney)
Tim Farrelly, Principal,
farrelly's Investment Strategy (Sydney) |
Resources |
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CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM 3 |
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The risk of inflation will rise
There’s an old saying – if you've seen one cockroach, you
haven't seen them all. That's a very important concept today for
managing diversified portfolios. We see one cockroach – low
interest rates - but what we don't see is the hidden
consequences that are throughout portfolios. This hasn't been a
problem so far because interest rates have been falling, but the
risk is interest rates will start to rise.
Simon Stevenson, Head of Strategy -
Multi-Asset, Schroders (Sydney)
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Resources
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Quality is a critical factor in
constructing portfolios
Quality is a critical factor in constructing portfolios. Quality
is used as an adjective used by investors across many investment
styles. Seldom however do advisers and investors get to see how
investment managers describe “quality” or screen for “quality”.
There are a number of quantitative approaches to measuring
quality, perhaps the best known being the Piotroski Score, which
is widely used by US-based fund managers. The use of a modified
Piotroski indicator as an indicator or screen can significantly
add to investment performance in New Zealand and Australia.
Andrew Bascand, Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, Harbour Asset Management (Wellington)
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Resources |
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In a period of sustained
sluggishness, quality companies are key
The current state of low global growth and increasing
indebtedness is best described as a period of 'sustained
sluggishness’. The tepid recovery from 2008’s GFC has surprised
almost everyone. Economists the world over have continuously
revised down their growth forecasts, as the ongoing stimulus
from the monetary authorities fails to deliver the economic
benefits intended. These flailing attempts to stimulate growth
have had the unproductive consequence of fuelling a sharp rise
in financial asset prices and as history has shown us time and
again, bubbles eventually burst. Investing in this low growth
world requires a very selective stock picking approach, and
suggests focusing on both value and quality. Quality companies
are best placed to make a reasonable return in this environment
as the many headwinds and imbalances throughout the world are
likely to continue.
Hugh Giddy, Senior Portfolio Manager & Head
of Investment Research, Investors Mutual (Sydney)
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Resources |
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China’s rapid growth is
unsustainable
Since the reforms of Deng Xiaoping, China has been on a
trajectory of rapid economic growth that is of an unprecedented
scale in human history. China's emergence from extreme poverty
to become the world's second largest economy was driven
primarily by massive export growth, as China became the world’s
factory. However, since the Global Financial Crisis, China's
growth has become reliant on credit stimulus and a related
property bubble. This unsustainable growth model is now coming
unstuck. While a "hard landing" is unlikely, China's growth is
certain to slow further, and the risks for the global economy
and financial markets are significant.
Sam Churchill, Head of Macro Research,
Magellan Asset Management (Sydney)
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Resources
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CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM 4 |
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It’s the end of EU-rope as we
know it
The European Union has been in crisis for many years.
Simultaneous sovereign debt, banking and monetary crises have
tested the European institutions to the limit. But if you
thought it could not get worse for Europe, you ain't seen
nothing yet! The continent is grappling with an uncontrolled
influx of migrants, Eastern European countries are moving
towards authoritarian structures, while the United Kingdom will
hold a referendum on exiting the EU. 2016 will change the nature
of the European Union – and might well signify the
end of Europe's process of political and economic integration.
Dr Oliver Hartwich, Executive Director,
The New Zealand Initiative (Wellington)
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Resources
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Don’t believe what you hear –
this is a high return environment
While record low interest rates worldwide – even negative in
many countries - does mean low returns on government bonds, it
doesn’t necessarily mean low returns across the board. Many
markets have not adjusted to the new low rate environment but
will over the next decade, leading to a period of strong
returns. This is not a time to be fearful.
Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's
Investment Strategy (Sydney)
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Resources
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The Great Debate
Our day's Faculty debates two
high conviction ideas from the day's program - firstly, the idea
that delegates agreed with most and then, the idea they
disagreed with most.
Bevan Graham, AMP NZ Chief Economist,
AMP Capital
Hugh Giddy, Senior Portfolio
Manager & Head of Investment Research, Investors
Mutual (Sydney)
Jacob Mitchell, Managing
Director, CIO & Portfolio Manager,
Antipodes Global Investment Partners (Sydney)
Dr Keith Suter, Managing Director, Global Directions (Sydney)
Dr Oliver Hartwich, Executive Director,
The New Zealand Initiative (Wellington)
Sam Churchill, Head of Macro
Research, Magellan Asset Management (Sydney)
Tim Farrelly, Principal,
farrelly's Investment Strategy (Sydney) |
Resources
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WORKSHOP 1 |
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Markets
How to determine your key takeouts from
day one, the markets
This highly interactive,
Socratic workshop kicked off with each panelist outlining the
high conviction idea they agreed with most from the prior day's
program - and the
portfolio construction implications. Delegates then worked in
their tables to determine the same, before reporting back on a
table-by-table basis.
Panel
Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's
Investment Strategy
Stephen O'Connor, Director, Mitre Wealth Management
Grant Cleary, Principal, Cleary Wealth Management |
Resources
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WORKSHOP 2 |
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Finology
How to identify retirement resources
that matter
It's a sad fact that not
everyone adjusts well to retirement. It's estimated that about
one third of retirees have problems adapting after leaving full
time work. So why do some people fail to adapt? Planning plays
an important role in promoting better adjustment - but planning
in what?
A Dynamic Resource Model provides a
potential solution by considering the multiple domains of
Physical, Cognitive, Motivational, Financial, Social and
Emotional resources needed in any comprehensive plan. Our focus
may be trained to be on finances but interrelationships between
the resources really make it impossible not to consider other
influences such as health, social support, cognitive skills,
emotional resilience and goal setting to support a retiree and
promote better adjustment.
By the end of this workshop, you will have
grown your understanding of the potential impact of retirees
adjusting to retirement and further developed your own
philosophy about the relevance of a Dynamic Resource Model to
client portfolios.
Dr Joanne Earl, Associate Professor - Flinders
Business School, Flinders University (Adelaide) |
Resources
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DUE DILIGENCE FORUM 1 |
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Equities - Specialty - US
Think differently to find
sustainable, secure sources of income
In a world of low (in some cases negative) interest rates,
investors need to think differently about where and how to
obtain sustainable, secure sources of income. Cash rates
globally are low and New Zealand is no exception – sitting on
cash is not a long-term solution for real sustainable income.
Equity dividend income is not contractual or secured by assets
and can be hurt by slowing corporate earnings, while bank
hybrids are subordinated structures and potentially dilutive if
converted to equity. Further, both equities and hybrids have
exhibited significant price volatility recently. US private
market home loans – income producing, low credit risk, low
volatility assets that can generate a stable flow of monthly
income - are one of many investment opportunities today in the
US home loan market to consider for portfolios.
Adam Grotzinger, Senior Vice President &
Client Portfolio Manager, Neuberger Berman (Singapore)
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Resources
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Alternatives
Currency is the ultimate
alternative
The currency exposure embedded in foreign equity portfolios
exposes the portfolio to a great deal of noise that is
particularly important to deal with in the low return
environment we are (and will be) in. It can’t just be ignored,
don’t only pay attention to it. Rather, used productively, the
opportunity it represents can be captured as the ultimate
"alternative asset".
Dori Levanoni, Partner - Investments,
First Quadrant (Los Angeles)
- brought to you by Affiliated Managers Group
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Resources
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Multi-asset
You can reach portfolio goals
despite negative interest rates
Investors are only slowly awakening to the threat to their goals
that negative interest rates globally pose. The impact is likely
to be on traditional diversified solutions. For this
environment, a diversified fund strategy should have a higher
mix of growth assets, and tactical asset allocation should be
applied. Further, all securities held must be appropriate to the
goals, simplicity is a key as costs must be lower, and fund
volatility must be managed lower.
Paul Richardson, Director & CIO, Mint Asset Management (Auckland)
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Resources
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DUE DILIGENCE FORUM 2 |
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Debt - Global
Right now inflation is the most
important macro indicator
Central bankers successfully tamed inflation in the late 1980s
and early 1990s. Through the 1990s and 2000s, inflation became
so well anchored around 2% that it fell off the radar; instead
investors focused on the economic cycle as an indicator of
central bank actions. However, we are now in uncharted
territory. Persistently low inflation is the new problem. Old
relationships between economic activity and inflation have
broken down. Monetary policy will remain highly stimulatory
until central banks see definite evidence that inflation is
rising and better anchored around 2%. With markets complacent
about the inflation outlook, signs of inflation could create a
scare. Right now inflation should be the most important macro
indicator on the radar of investors.
Christian Hawkesby, Head of Fixed Income,
Harbour Asset Management (Wellington)
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Resources
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Equities - Specialty - India
Size does matter when investing
in India's growth
Companies generally grow their earnings by increasing sales
and/or profit margins. This is driven by the size of the market,
the company's market share and the level of industry
competition. With India’s youthful, vibrant and sizeable
population, it’s demographic dividend creates a significant
market opportunity for corporates operating within the
ecosystem. For these businesses size really does matter, leading
to the potential for exceptional revenue growth. This is
unparalleled when comparing corporates domiciled in Australia,
NZ or anywhere else in the world for that matter.
Mugunthan Siva, Managing Director, India
Avenue Investment Management (Sydney)
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Resources
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Finology
Today’s risk profiling puts us
all at risk
Risk profiling is entirely broken. The key to understanding
clients is in analysing their actions, not their words, or
answers to a risk questionnaire. Game theory, econometrics and
distributed computing power are the new tools necessary to
reveal a client’s true preferences for risk, loss, uncertainty,
time and goals – with scientific precision and in terms that
clients can understand.
Bernard Del Rey, CEO, Capital Preferences
(New York)
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Resources
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WORKSHOP 3 |
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Strategies
How not to be blindsided by the
retirement investment challenge
How will retirees live the dreams they have for
retirement? For many, it has meant investing in property,
holding shares, or even simply holding onto cash –but just how
do those decisions effect their lifestyle when they hit
retirement?
This workshop explores the many choices we face in our
effort to live our retirement dreams, and think more creatively
about retirement planning with clients. Presented in a format
that incorporates a game, delegates will be asked to choose one
of five investment strategies for three different economic
environments. The objective is to produce steady income, without
destroying capital so that the client can meet their objectives
in retirement.
By the end of this workshop, you will have a deeper understanding
of portfolio construction for retirees, and how risk factors
drive outcomes, and a deeper understanding of how you can
influence and help clients meet their retirement dreams.
John
Valtwies, Vice President Investment Due Diligence Group, PIMCO
(Sydney)
Manusha
Samaraweera, Senior Product Associate, PIMCO (Sydney) |
Resources
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WORKSHOP 4 |
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Strategies
How to develop a robust retirement
spending policy
One of the most important decisions facing retirees
is working out how much can be “safely” spent without the risk
of exhausting capital. Yet it’s an area that has received little
attention to date – but this is changing rapidly.
This workshop reviews different approaches to creating
formal, written spending policy describing how much confidence
is required that funds will not be exhausted; how much can be
spent each year; how that spending will be adjusted for changes
to costs of living; and, how the spending plan will be reviewed
each year to take account of changing circumstances.
By the end of this workshop, you will have grown your
understanding of the different approaches to creating a
retirement spending policy and what needs to be done to put a
policy in place.
Tim Farrelly, Principal, farrelly's
Investment Strategy (Sydney)
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Resources
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